Quick Yankee Notes

Hopefully his clutch RBI single right before Soto's bomb gets him out of this mini-slump he's in. 

I am worrying:
How much can fans trust the current version of the Yankees’ bullpen?
The results have mostly been there so far, but some serious red flags stand out.
www.pinstripealley.com/2024/4/20/24135133/yankees-bullpen-clay-holmes-ian-hamilton-strikeout-rate-percentage-victor-gonzalez

After last night’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Yankees have now completed 20 games this season, or a tad over 12 percent of their overall schedule. While, in the grand scheme of things, this is still a very small sample size, we now have a sufficient number of games in the rearview mirror to begin to, if not draw conclusions, at least point out potential trends to keep an eye on.

Over the offseason, the Yankees bullpen underwent a major transformation. Gone are Wandy Peralta, Michael King, Nick Ramirez, Greg Weissert, and Albert Abreu, who combined for a whopping 277 innings last season (this number is of course slightly inflated by King working as a starter in the last six weeks of the season). In their place are Caleb Ferguson, Victor González, Nick Burdi, Luke Weaver, and Dennis Santana, who combined for 40 of the 72 innings the Yankees bullpen has provided so far this season — more than 55 percent! Oh, and to top it all off, Burdi hit the injured list with a hip injury, meaning yet another pitcher who wasn’t here last season, Cody Morris, will in the mix.

Despite the amount of turnover, the Yankees bullpen has continued to plug along. Thanks in part both to strong performances from the new additions and the continued reliability of Clay Holmes and Ian Hamilton, Yankees relievers rank fourth in baseball with a miniscule 2.62 ERA, behind only the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, and Oakland Athletics. The question is, however, can they continue to sustain this performance? The underlying data isn’t so sure.

In the Matt Blake era, the Yankees bullpen has been built on one simple philosophy: sinker/slider guys capable of missing bats and generating groundballs. It’s a model that has served them very well, allowing them to target underperforming guys like Holmes, Hamilton, and Peralta and turn them into dominant high-leverage relievers. This year, however, while the bullpen has continued to generate soft contact, they’ve struggled to miss bats.

Entering play on Friday, that 17.9-percent strikeout rate ranked dead last in the Majors, behind even the Rays (whose bullpen has a 6.00 ERA) and the Rockies (5.56 ERA). While their ability to induce weak contact and groundballs has more than made up for it so far — .195 batting average against ranks fourth, their .222 BABIP third, and their 20.2-percent soft contact rate sixth — this isn’t exactly the most sustainable blueprint for high-leverage situations. With runners on the basepaths and under two outs in extra innings, you need a strikeout, because a groundball can be misplayed (hello, Gleyber Torres last Sunday), and a fly out with a runner on third might just be a walk-off (see later that same inning); a strikeout prevents either play from happening.

None of the Yankees pitchers rank high on the K% leaderboards; Hamilton, the highest-ranking healthy pitcher in the New York ‘pen, ranked 103rd among the 221 qualifying relievers at the start of play yesterday (when he also had a bumpy eighth against Tampa Bay). While being in the upper echelon of this list isn’t the be-all, end-all — Aroldis Chapman came in second in this category a year ago, and Josh Hader and his 8.31 ERA currently rank 14th — a good reliever is at worst in the middle of the pack. So far, the Yankees are dreadfully thin on middle of the pack, and boast the worst in the league via González’s 6.9-percent K rate.

It is still April, and rest assured, there’s plenty of time for these numbers to change. Just based off their own history, I expect the Yankees to improve in this category even without making too many changes; they don’t need to rush a young starter to a relief role à la Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain just yet. González, for example, has typically sat in the 21-22 percent area. Holmes is also sitting about 10-12 percentage points below his career average. Just seeing these two perform closer to expectations would go a long way towards increasing the teamwide strikeout percentage and, hopefully, keep some additional runners off the board.

It’s something to keep an eye on in the next few weeks. The ‘pen is doing its job at the moment, and that can’t be outright dismissed. All the same, the Yankees will need someone available to miss bats in a key situation at certain points of the ballgame.

NYYStats: Luis Gil is the second pitcher in American League history with 29+ K and 8 H or fewer in his first four games of a season.

The other?

Carlos Rodon with the White Sox in 2021

NJ Advance Media | Randy Miller: Austin Wells has just a 23 wRC+ through his first 13 games, but the team has not wavered in its confidence to start him in a near-even timeshare with Jose Trevino. The most important factor in this trust has been the rapport Wells has established with each member of the starting rotation as well as the strides he has made in the framing department. Aaron Boone thinks Wells is close based on his batted ball data and the work in the cage the young catcher has done behind the scenes.

New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics: Series Preview
www.pinstripealley.com/2024/4/22/24135961/new-york-yankees-oakland-athletics-series-preview-probable-pitchers-rodon-sears-stroman-blackburn

The Yankees finish out their homestand with four games against the non-last-place Oakland Athletics. You read that right. The Athletics travel to the Bronx with an 8-14 record but find themselves ahead of the reeling Astros in an AL West that has seen each team get off to a slow start.

However, it’s much of the same story when it comes to the Athletics and the current state of their franchise. They have lost three in a row after being swept by the Guardians this past weekend. The A’s have scored the second-fewest runs in all of baseball, leading only the historically bad White Sox. This team is buoyed by their pitching, including a starter who is top five in ERA (more on that later).

The Yankees come into this matchup with a 15-7 record and find themselves atop the AL East. Pitching and Juan Soto have led this team to a division lead, but question marks on offense remain. Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres continue to struggle in the middle of the lineup, but fans are hoping a series against the Athletics will be enough to get them going. Let’s take a look at the pitching matchups and see how the Yankees and Athletics stack up.

Monday: Carlos Rodón vs. JP Sears (1:05 pm ET)

Carlos Rodón is pitching to a respectable 3.66 ERA across four starts but is coming off his worst start of the season last week against Toronto. His last outing saw him give up three runs over four innings pitched. He also walked four in that start and his pitch count was elevated early. I’m sure the Yankees are looking for more length from Rodón, and maybe a matchup against one of the league’s worst offenses is exactly what he needs to get back on track.

Rodón will be matched up against a familiar face in JP Sears. The left-hander made two starts and seven total appearances for the Yankees back in 2022 before being traded to the Athletics in a package for Frankie Montas. Sears gave up nine runs in his first two starts but has settled in since then. In his last two starts, he has only surrendered one run and opposing batters have managed just three hits against him. Sears has provided stability to a team that has lacked it in recent years.

Tuesday: Marcus Stroman vs. Paul Blackburn (7:05 pm ET)

Marcus Stroman has been everything the Yankees could have hoped for when they signed the veteran right-hander this offseason. Despite a clunker against Miami, resulting from one big three-run home run given up to Jake Burger, Stroman has pitched to a 2.42 ERA this season. He has shown the ability to grind down opposing lineups and limit damage during tough innings. It is the type of starter that any good rotation needs and the Yankees have needed it with the injury to Cole.

Stroman will have to bring his A-game because he will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. Paul Blackburn did not give up a run in his first three starts for the A’s. It was a scoreless streak that spanned 22.1 innings, an Oakland Athletics record to start a season. The Athletics are 4-0 when Blackburn makes a start, accounting for half of the team’s wins this season. It will be a fun battle between him and Stroman in the Bronx.

Wednesday: Clarke Schmidt vs. Joe Boyle (7:05 pm ET)

If coming into the season the Yankees were told that Clark Schmidt would have a 3.15 ERA over his first four starts, they would take it. But while his strikeout numbers are high (10.35 K/9) there has been consistent traffic on the basepaths. Opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Schmidt who has given up 23 hits in 20 innings pitched. Luckily for the young right-hander, he has been able to work himself out of jams, but you have to wonder if there will be a market correction soon. You can’t expect much length from Schmidt either, who continues to find himself deep in counts too often.

Joe Boyle got his first taste of big league action last year when the young right-hander impressed in three starts for the A’s as a September callup. Boyle was able to make the starting rotation out of spring training, but it has been an up-and-down season for him. In his first start against the Red Sox, he was not able to make it out of the third inning after giving up eight hits and eight runs in a 9-0 loss. Boyle then bounced back with back-to-back solid performances where he only surrendered one run over 10 innings pitched. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to build on those two outings as an ugly 10-2 loss to Cleveland in his latest start saw him walk four as the Guardians put up a seven spot on the 24-year-old. Growing pains are to be expected with young starters. The bullpens will likely be ready to go for both squads in this one.

Thursday: Nestor Cortes vs. Alex Wood (7:05 pm ET)

Nestor Cortes is coming off his best start of the year in an outing against the Rays. Cortes gave up no runs over seven innings but got the no-decision as the Yankees ended up losing that game 2-0 in extra innings. Despite a tough outing against Cleveland, two out of Cortes’ last three starts have seen the lefty go seven or more innings without surrounding a run. In total Nestor has an expected ERA of 2.78 on the season and is hopefully rounding into form for the Yankees.

The series finishes off with a soft landing spot for the Yankees. An inconsistent Boyle is followed by Alex Wood, who has also struggled for the A’s. His 7.89 ERA is the second highest in the majors for any starter who has pitched at least 20 innings. Not surprisingly, opponents are hitting .359 off the veteran lefty. In his latest outing against Cleveland, Wood gave up four runs in five innings. Wood pitched well in that start until a two-run home run in the fifth by Josh Naylor spoiled what looked like his best start of the season. Maybe there are signs of life from Wood, but the Yankees should like their chances in this one.

NJ Advance Media | Bridget Hyland: It’s fair to say a lot of people in Boston wanted the Red Sox to get rid of Alex Verdugo over the winter. Well, the Yankees, after the outfield depth issues they had last season, traded for him and he is doing just fine in the Bronx.

The player is a strong dugout presence and is performing well. Not only that, but he said the Yankees’ clubhouse is “probably the favorite clubhouse I’ve ever been in. It’s a very close-knit, tight-knit group.”

NYY Stats: Clay Holmes this season

12 IP
0 ER
9 SV

His 12 innings pitched are tied with Shane Bieber for the most in MLB without allowing an earned run