New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels: Series Preview
The Yankees continue their West Coast swing with a trip to Anaheim.
www.pinstripealley.com/2024/5/28/24165582/yankees-los-angeles-angels-series-preview-expected-starters-schedule-rodon-cortes-luis-gilAfter a series win in San Diego, the Yankees’ West Coast trip continues as they head up I-5 for a three-game set with the Angels. With Shohei Ohtani now a Dodger and Mike Trout on the IL, the Angels represent a great opportunity to win yet another series.
There’s been little positive to write home about in Anaheim this year. Trout looked to be turning the clock back to his peak years to start the season, but that storyline was quickly extinguished as Trout underwent yet another surgery, this one on his left knee.
Outside of Trout, the Angels have at least gotten positive offensive contributions from a trio of young bats in Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, and Jo Adell. The resurgence of Adell has to count as one of the most exciting developments for the Angels, as the former top prospect has provided the best extended stretch of play at the major league level of his career. Still just 25, Adell has a 113 wRC+ with ten homers on the year.
While the play of those young hitters has been promising, the Angels are otherwise a bit of a Last Chance Saloon. This week, expect to see a number of veterans that make you go “huh, I didn’t know he was still in the league”. Kevin Pillar, Miguel Sano, and Willie Calhoun have been taking at-bats in Anaheim lately. Hunter Strickland, Amir Garrett, and Roansy Contreras (of the Jameson Taillon trade in 2021) dot the pitching staff.
Even if there’s actually a bit of charm to a team with a combo of young players trying to establish themselves and vets trying to rediscover their glory days, this is clearly a below average team, one the Yankees should expect to beat. Let’s go through the pitching matchups for the series.
Tuesday: Nestor Cortes vs. Griffin Canning (9:38 pm ET)
After an uneven start on Opening Day in Houston, Cortes has settled in as one of the Yankees’ most dependable hurlers. He’s got a 2.97 ERA and 3.19 FIP to his name since that start, and he hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 15.1 innings.
To my eye, Cortes has bounced back this year largely because his command has been on point. When he locates his four-seamer at the top of the zone, and his cutter in on the hands of righties, he’s extremely tough on opposing hitters, even sitting just 91-92 mph. It’s on the occasions where that command is a little off that he can have trouble. He’s occasionally had fits where he’s sailed his four-seamer above the zone.
And if he comes middle-middle with that heater, hitters can do damage.
As long Cortes can avoid those kinds of mistakes, he should be in line for another strong start.
Opposite Cortes will be 28-year-old righty Griffin Canning. Once a top-100 prospect, Canning has been a pretty non-descript mid-rotation starter for the Angels the last five years. He’s got a 97 ERA+ for his career, though he’s fared worse this season, with a 5.05 ERA and 5.39 FIP to his name.
Canning sports an unimpressive heater, one that checks in at 93 mph and has been hit hard this year. The Yankees should be looking to damage on the fastball whenever Canning comes into the zone with it. His best pitches are a hard slider and changeup, both of which he throws in the upper-80s. Canning’s change has consistently been his best pitch in terms of results for his career, and expect it to be his primary weapon against the Yankees’ left-handed hitters.
Wednesday: Luis Gil vs. Tyler Anderson (9:38 pm ET)
There aren’t many more exciting pitchers to watch in the league right now than Luis Gil. The right-hander’s scintillating 14-strikeout start last weekend felt like a statement that he was for real, and he followed up that outing with another dominating performance, shutting out the Mariners for 6.1 innings while allowing just one hit.
It’s been said a million times, but the key remains control for Gil. He’s issued one or two walks in each of his last three starts, a marked improvement over his first month of the season. He’s been in the zone more in particular his last two starts, as more than two-thirds of his pitches when for strikes in each of those outings. He’d do well to continue finding the zone and challenge the Angels’ motley crew of hitters with his explosive stuff.
While the Yankees will start a couple of left-handed pitchers in the midst of bounce-back seasons during this series, the Angels will counter with their own on Wednesday. Anderson was one of the Angels’ free-agent prizes two winters ago, signing a three-year contract in November 2022 coming off a breakout year with the Dodgers. The veteran regressed hard in his debut with the Angels, taking the ball 27 times but posting a 5.43 ERA for his efforts.
Anderson has had a much better go of it in 2024, running a shiny 2.52 ERA over 64.1 innings, though he still walks too many hitters and doesn’t strike enough of them out. He relies on inducing weak contact, leaning heavily on his excellent changeup against right-handers.
Despite the nice run prevention numbers, Anderson is still a guy the Yankees should be able to get to if they can lay off his offspeed beneath the zone.
Thursday: Carlos Rodón vs. Patrick Sandoval (9:38 pm ET)
After giving up three home runs in a disastrous start in Baltimore at the start of May, it looked like things could be going south again for Rodón. Instead, the lefty has responded well and has given the Yankees six-plus strong innings in each of his last four starts. He’s struck out 21 batters against five walks in that span.
It would be nice to see Rodón start to generate a few more whiffs here against the Angels. Even as he’s had success this year, Rodón still hasn’t quite reached the heights of his outstanding 2021-2022 campaigns, during which he posted huge strikeout and whiff figures. All of Rodon’s strikeout, walk, and whiff numbers are sitting middle-of-the-pack at the moment.
If I had to highlight one factor to help Rodón generate more swings and misses, it’d probably be fastball location. Consider the heatmap for his fastball from Rodón’s scintillating 2022 campaign with the Giants on the left, and from this year on the right.
While Rodón’s always challenged hitters with his pure heat, he’s been much more middle-middle this year, as evidenced by the seven homers he’s already allowed with his fastball this year. It’d be a good idea to take a page out of Nestor’s playbook and get that fastball elevated at the top of the zone (easier said than done, I’m sure).
It’ll be another lefty facing Rodon in Patrick Sandoval. The Angels’ best pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani the last few seasons, Sandoval posted a strong 122 ERA+ over 380 innings across 2021 to 2023.
Sandoval’s had a rougher 2024, running a 5.60 ERA over 54.2 frames. He’s a bit of a backwards pitcher; he has middling velo at 93 mph, and thus uses his changeup and slider as his primary pitches rather than his fastball. His change in particular is one of the best in the game.
It’s not a dissimilar profile to the one the Yankees will see in Anderson the night before. With luck, the Yankees will see through each of them, and come away from Anaheim with the series in hand.
