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Post by kaybli on Sept 17, 2024 17:53:41 GMT -5
Only six combined letters in the pitching matchup today. 
Volpe sits. Judge in at DH, No Stanton.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 17:54:19 GMT -5
It’s generally not a good thing to have a West Coast trip this late in the season, especially if one of the teams you’re playing is very much in the playoff hunt. In fact, the Mariners come into this series more desperate than the Yankees, which makes them dangerous. The Mariners led the West for more than half the season. They peaked on June 18th at 44-31, 13 games over .500 and at that point, they had a 10-game lead over the Astros, who were just starting to overcome a terrible start, and were about one-third the way through a 100-game stretch in which they would go 62-38, going from 10 games behind to a 6 1/2 game lead. At that point, the Mariners, just like the Yanks a week earlier, began a long stretch of shoddy play, going 25-39 over the next eleven weeks plus, and on August 21st they were a game under .500, 69-70 and 6 1/2 games back of the Astros. They have since righted things, winning 8 of their last 11, and coming into today, they’re 4 games back of Houston. Even better for Seattle, the Twins, have slumped at the same time, losing 7 of 11, and in the battle for the final Wild Card in the AL, they’re now just 2 back of Minnesota, though the Tigers are in between, 1/2 game ahead of the M’s. They played the Yanks 4 games at the Stadium in the second half of May, the Mariners taking the first two, and the Yanks evening it up by taking the third and fourth games.
This season has been very similar to the last several seasons the Mariners have played. They’re in contention, but somewhat disappointing, and the reasons are the same as well; the starting rotation looks elite on paper, and it probably is the best 5-man rotation in the AL: Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, and Woo. The Mariners are first in the AL in ERA, first in team shutouts, lowest hits allowed, fewest walks allowed, 5th in K’s, and they hold similar ranks in those categories in all the per 9 innings categories. They lead the league in K/BB ratio as well. Their one modest weakness is that the staff is middle of the pack in HR allowed, which is a good thing for the Yanks. Quite a bit of this is due to Safeco Park being a fairly extreme pitcher’s park, decreasing scoring by roughly 10%, and extra base hits by about 30%. At home, their elite pitching gets even more dominant: they lead the league in ERA by 0.15 runs, but at home, they lead by 0.75 runs, and they’ve allowed just 72 home runs at Safeco as opposed to 98 on the road and in the same number of games, 75 at home and 75 on the road. The Yankees do get one break in the series, Luis Castillo, who’s pitch several great games against them in recent seasons, is on the IL, and his spot in the rotation will be taken by rookie righty Emerson Hancock. As far as their bullpen goes, it’s not as good as their rotation, but it’s still very good, headed by hard-throwing closer Andres Munoz, who slammed the door on the Yanks twice in the series in New York. Overall, the Seattle bullpen is 5th in the AL in ERA at 3.74, right behind the Yanks at 3.65. They’re 3rd in WHIP and lead the AL in bullpen K’s per 9 innings, and 5th in BB per 9 innings. The one weakness is that they’re one of just 3 teams that have allowed a higher percentage of inherited runners to score than the Yanks, 39%, 2nd highest in the AL. The contest of their bad inherited runners scoring percentage vs. the Yanks’ known ineptitude with runners in scoring position should be an interesting contest.
The story on offense is also the same; a lineup that looks pretty good on paper but underwhelming in performance. Of the season-long starters, only Luke Fraley and Cal Raleigh have been solidly above average, and Raleigh’s good work comes with a higher K total than anyone in the league except Zack Gelof of the A’s. One of the good things happening for the offense is that budding superstar centerfielder Julio Rodriguez has bounced back to form: as recently as late August, his OPS was just .660 with 11 HR and 40 RBI in 112 games, but in his late 17 games, he’s been red-hot: .333/.390/.583/.974 with 5 HR, 17 runs and 15 RBI, with a K/BB ratio of 14-8, much better than totals before of 128-34. One other offensive wild card in play, Victor Robles, who was as exciting an outfield prospect as Juan Soto 7-8 years ago, and was supposed to be the centerfielder in the Nats’ outfield for years to come, but who floundered for 5-6 years. Robles has been playing regularly for the M’s in the last 3-4 weeks, and is on a fantastic heater: in his last 21 games since August 17th, his hitting .444/.512/.597/1.109 with 15 runs and 12 RBI, and he’s 12 for 12 stealing bases in that streak. For the season, the M’s have scored 4.11 runs per game, 11th in the AL, but it’s 4.9 runs per game in the last 46 games, and just over 6 runs a game in this 8-3 hot streak. The good news overall for Seattle: the M’s are 2nd to just the Yanks in walks drawn and 4th in stolen bases. The bad news: just about everything else: 15th in hits, 14th in doubles, 13th in triples, 14th in BAVG, 8th in OBA, 12th in slugging, 11th in OPS, and they lead the league in batters struck out, and as amazing as it seems, almost exactly 300 more batter K’s than the Yanks, who have the 6th fewest team batter K’s, 50 below the AL average. As for home runs, the M’s are 8th in the AL, and at home, they’re 10th, as you might expect given their home park. As you know, the Yanks are dead last in team baserunning in a number of places. On Fangraphs, the Yanks are last in in the AL at -16 runs, the Mariners are 6th at +2 runs. It isn’t that the Yanks are making so many outs all over the bases, they’re actually near the AL average in runners caught stealing, picked off or TOOTBLANed, it’s just that Yanks are slow as a team, and their runners don’t steal (last in the AL) or take extra bases on hits very often.
As for fielding, the Mariners are 6th in the AL in Defensive Runs Saved as a team, and the Yanks are 7th, +32 to +24. In Fielding Run Value, the Yanks are 3rd at +34 and the M’s are 9th at flat 0, but Defensive Efficiency Rating teams a completely different story: The Mariners are 1st in all of MLB at .725, the Yanks are 15th in MLB and 9th in the AL at .702.
Add it all up, and I think the Yanks will have to work hard to avoid losing this series; in fact, given the matchups, there’s a decent chance they might go into the 3rd game. The Yanks do have the best road record in MLB, 45-30, but that the exact same record the Mariners have at home, 4th best in MLB.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 18:00:38 GMT -5
The Mariners start righty Bryan Woo in the opener, who’s sort of a contradiction, he’s a power righty who throws pretty hard but not super-hard. He can hit upper 90’s, but averages 95. His power performance comes from his arm angle; his fastball plays up because of the modern pitching metrics like extension and Induced Vertical Break and Vertical Approach Angle, peppering the upper part of the zone, and hitter after hitter swinging under it. We hit his history the first time he faced the Yanks, so no need to repeat it. Since that opening game of the 4-game series in New York, he’s been sat down for two brief stretches; the first was a 12-day stretch in late May-early June while the M’s checked out a potential shoulder problem, but the MRI came back clean, and they put him back in the rotation. He was also put on the IL for 16 days in late June through early July with a minor hamstring injury. In between all that, he’s been outstanding. Since the game against the Yanks, he’s gone 6-2 in 16 starts with an ERA of 2.70. On the season, Woo is 8-2 in 19 starts with a 2.38 ERA that would be leading the AL but he doesn’t have nearly enough innings to qualify, having missed the first month of the season with yet another injury. In 105 2/3 innings, he’s allowed just 77 hits, 30 runs, 28 earned, 11 HR, and just 10 BB, with 82 K’s. His WHIP for the season is a microscopic 0.823, and he’d be leading the league in that category and K/BB ratio as well if he had enough innings. Against the Yanks, he’s been all but untouchable in 2 starts: 2-0, and as they haven’t scored on him yet, the ERA is 0.00. In 11 1/3 innings, he’s given them just 4 hits and 3 BB, striking out 12, and the WHIP is a ridiculous 0.618. Obviously, the team quadruple slash numbers against him are terrible: .105/.171/.132/.302. In game this year in May, he threw 6 shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits and a walk, striking out 7 in a 6-3 Mariners win.
Repertoire: Woo is a 5-pitch righty: 4-seam, sinker, change, slider and sweeper. He relies on the 4-seam and sinker throwing them about 70% of the time, and more than two 4-seamer for every sinker It has above rise, and average run. The sinker has slightly below average drop and slightly above average run in on righties. The change gets below average drop as well, but better than average tail away from lefties. The slider gets slightly below average drop and below average break into lefties, and the sweeper gets close to average drop and sweep away from righties. In run values, the 4-seam is a sizeable plus; per pitch, the sinker is an even bigger plus, and the sweeper has very large plus value per pitch. The change has roughly average plus value, and the slider slightly a bit less than average. His chase rate is average, as is the spin on his FB, his FB velocity is above average as is his extension. What makes his FB and sinker work so well is the attack angle which is very shallow combined with a very low release point, one of the lowest in MLB.
They used to say that pitchers with a very high release point had the advantage because they attacked hitters downhill making them tough to square up. But that was decades ago in the era of hitters attempting to swing level. In the modern game, almost all hitters have the go-for-power, up-angle swing, trying to match the assumed incoming pitch down-angle and meet the ball on the same plane, but if you attack them with solid velocity from a shallow pitch-angle, it makes it much harder to barrel the ball. And so it is with Woo, below average exit velocity, very low barrel rate (would be 3rd lowest among 60 qualified MLB starters if he had enough innings), very low hard-hit rate (would be 8th lowest). Very low line drive rate (would be 2nd lowest), low popup rate, average ground ball rate, above average flyball rate. His swinging strike rate is about league average, but the called strike rate is high, and so is the CSW, which would be 13th. In “luck” factors, he has a very low BABIP, a very high strand rate and a very low HR/FB rate, so all three are working very much in his favor, but as I’ve mentioned before, pitchers performing at an elite level can “make their own luck” by getting extremely poor contact from hitters, and so it is with Woo, at least so far. His ERA estimators accordingly think his ERA should be almost a run higher, but 1) 3.25 is still an excellent ERA and 2) it might be a while before hitters can figure him out and “enforce” the “correct” ERA on Woo. The pitch mix so far this season: FB averaging 95 about 50% of the time, sinker 94-5 about 23%, change 89-90 about 10%, slider 86 and sweeper 82, both about 8.5%. Expect Woo to be throwing the FB and sinker a bit harder than that to start the game with.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 18:05:00 GMT -5
Playing the Name Game: The name Bryan came up when he pitched against the Yanks in May; there are 33 of them in MLB history. Another “modern” name, almost all boys with the name were spelled Brian in decades past. None of the Bryans started their career before the 1980s, with the exception of pitcher Bryan Stephens, who played in 1947-8. The best hitter in history named Bryan is Bryan Reynolds, the OF for the Pirates, who’s had 4 straight very good seasons from 2021 through this year, averaging .277, with 24 HR, 80 RBI and an OPS of .827. He’s made two All-Star teams, and got down-ballot MVP votes in 2021. The best pitcher named Bryan is former closer Bryan Harvey, who pilled up 177 career saves for the Angels and Marlins in the 1980s and early 90s, leading the AL in saves with 46 in 1991, and proving the adage that bad teams are much better in close games than blowouts by saving 45 games for the original, terrible Marlins team that won just 64 in their inaugural season of 1993. Harvey made the All-Star team and got down-ballot Cy Young Votes in both years, but he hurt his elbow the season between, and when the elbow problems came back in 1994, his major league career was over. Though he took the 1996 season off, his comeback attempt in 1997 died in the minors (he even tried to come back as a starter, making 12 starts among his 28 games) with a bad ERA near 5.00.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 18:06:17 GMT -5
The Yanks’ own young gun opens the series: Luis Gil. Gil’s had his ups and downs this year but is currently riding a small “up”; he’s pitched well in two starts since coming off the IL with a back strain, giving up just 1 run in 11 innings for a win and a no-decision against the Cubs and Royals. On the season, Gil is 13-5 with an ERA of 3.18 (and, as with Woo, Gil doesn’t have enough innings to qualify, or he’d be 7th in the AL, 8th if you count Woo) in 26 starts. He’s pitched 135 2/3 innings, allowing 89 hits, 49 runs, 48 earned, a major league leading 70 walks, and has struck out 156. Despite all the walks, his hit rate is low enough so that his WHIP is a solid 1.172. As with Woo, his H/9 innings would be the best in the AL and his K per 9 would be 4th best, but his BB per 9 would be the worst, and: he’s not qualified anyway. He also matches Woo in one other way: he’s made two career starts against his opponent, and he’s dominated both, one in 2021, and one earlier this season. He’s 2-0 against Seattle, and they haven’t scored on him, either: 11 1/3 shutout innings, just 3 hits, 4 BB and 16 K’s. His WHIP against the M’s is exactly as ridiculous as Woo’s is against the Yanks: 0.618, and as you might expect, the M’s team quadruple slash line against Gil is just as terrible, and maybe slightly worse: .079/.167/.079/.246. In the start against Seattle in May, Gil went 6 1/3 innings for the W, allowing 2 hits, no runs, walking just 1 and striking out 8 in a 5-0 Yanks’ win.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 18:08:20 GMT -5
As you might expect from the above, both teams' batter vs. pitchers stats for tonight are very bad, but here they are nonetheless...
Yankees' lineup vs. Woo: he's never started against them, and just two Yankees have faced him:
1. Torres (2B) is 1-5 with 2 K
2. Soto (RF) is 0-3 with 2 K
3. Judge (DH) is 0-2 with 1 K
4. Wells (C) is 1-2 with 1 K
5. Chisholm (3B) has never faced Woo
6. Dominguez (CF) has also never fact him
7. Rizzo (1B) is 1-4 with 1 BB and 1 K
8. Cabrera (SS) is 0-2
9. Verdugo (LF) 1-2 with1 double
On the bench: Stanton is 0-2 with 1 K; Volpe is 0-4 with 1 BB and 1 K, Grisham is 0-2 with 1 K
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Mariners' lineup vs. Gil:
1. Robles (DH) has never faced Gil
2. Rodriguez (CF) is 0-2 with 1 K
3. Raleigh (C) is 0-2
4. Arozarena (LF) 0-5 with 1 BB and 4 K
5. Raley (RF) 0-3 with 2 K
6. Turner (1B) is 0-2 with 1 BB and 2 k
7. Polanco (2B) is 1-3 with a 2-run HR
8. Crawford (SS) is 1-3 with 2 K
9. Rojas (2B) is 0-2
On the bench: Haniger is 1-3 with 1 K; Garver is 0-3
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 18:09:42 GMT -5
Yesterday: the Yanks had the day off, and so did the rest of the East.
In games relevant to the Mariners, and thus tangentially important to the Yanks, the Twins blew a 3-0 lead and lost to the Guardians, 4-3, with Guardians' rookie and top prospect Kyle Manzardo hitting a 2-run HR off of Griffin Jax in the 8th to give Cleveland the lead. Closer Emmanuel Clase quickly converted that big HR in a win by throwing a 1-2-3 9th, striking out 2 for his MLB-leading 46th save.
For a change the Tigers won on their hitting, not pitching, as starter Reese Olson was knocked out in the 3rd, giving up 4 runs. The Tigers rallied from 5-1 down with 3 in the 5th, including a 2-run HR by rookie Colt Keith, and 3 more in the 6th, with a 2-run double by Wencel Perez tying the game at 6, and a RBI single by Matt Vierling giving the Tigers the lead. Both bullpens threw scoreless ball the rest of the way, and the Tigers won 7-6. Jason Foley pitched a 1-2-3 9th for his 24th save of the season.
Coming into the games today, the East standings are unchanged: the Yanks lead the O’s by 3, the Red Sox by 12, the Rays by 14 and the Jays by 15. Tampa and Toronto have been eliminated from winning the East title, the Red Sox tragic number for elimination for the division is still 1, and the Yanks magic number for clinching the East remains 10. The three Wild Cards are still the O’s, the Royals and the Twins, but the Tigers are now just 1 1/2 games back of Minnesota, and the Mariners are 2 back. The tragic number for eliminating the Jays, Rays and Sox from the playoffs are 6.7, and 9, respectively. The Yanks' magic number for clinching at least a Wild Card stayed is still 3. They can clinch against the M's by winning 2 of 3 this series, and clinch a playoff spot if Detroit loses a game to the Royals while this series is being played if the Yanks do win the series. Or they can clinch by sweeping the M's. Nothin' to it, right?
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 18:13:36 GMT -5
In other East games today: At 6:35 pm in Camden Yards, the Giants start a 3-game series against the Orioles. Blake Snell (3-3, 3.52 ERA) starts for San Francisco. He was pulled after just 1 innings and 42 pitches two starts ago against Arizona, but otherwise resumed his hot rune since coming off the IL in July with give strong innings at home in a blowout of the Brewers, 13-2 last time out. Albert Suarez (8-5, 3.39 ERA) goes for Baltimore; bouncing back from a shocking terrible start against the White Sox for a loss with an excellent start against Boston for a win last time, throwing 6 innings of 1-run ball, striking out 8 and walking just 2.
At 6:50 pm in the DopeyDome™, the Red Sox start a 3-game series against the Rays, both teams desperately trying to claw back into the Wild Card Chase. Nick Pivetta (5-10, 4.24 ERA) starts for Boston; he’s pitched 3 very good games in a row against the Tigers, White Sox and O’s, but the Sox didn’t score for him, so he’s got two no-decisions and a loss to show for them. Shane Baz (2-3, 3.28 ERA) starts for Tampa, he’s pitch 5 solid games in a row with a 2.32 ERA, and though the Rays got 11 runs for him in one of the five, in the other four, they’ve scored all of 6 runs, so Baz is 2-2 with a no-decision in the five.
And if anyone cares, the Jays are in Texas to start a 3-game series against the Rangers in a matchup of Yankee-killers. Chris Bassitt (10-13, 4.20 ERA) starts for Toronto; he’s thrown 2 good starts in his last 3 games after a long stretch of poor pitching, beating the Mets in his last start by throwing 6 strong innings of 1-run ball with 8 K’s. Nathan Eovaldi (11-8, 3.67 ERA) goes for Texas; he had a run of solid starts end in his last outing against the Diamondbacks, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, taking the loss.
And at 9:40 in Safeco Field, it’s Gil vs. Woo, the second time this season we’ve seen the very rare matchup of two pitchers with 3-letter last names. The first was when Gil faced off against the Brewers’ Colin Rea in Milwaukee in late April. The Brewers won it late, getting one off Michael Tonkin in the 10th and the winner in the 11th.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 17, 2024 18:20:48 GMT -5
Preview data dumped, I'm making myself a dinner and relaxing for a bit before the game starts roughly 2 hours and 20 minutes from now. The early news from Baltimore is good: Giants lead 3-0, going top 3.
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Post by JEGnj on Sept 17, 2024 18:22:24 GMT -5
Not sure if I can handle west coast games this week. Working 6am's
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Post by chiyankee on Sept 17, 2024 18:25:08 GMT -5
Not sure if I can handle west coast games this week. Working 6am's Going to be difficult for me too. I get up to work out before I go to work, so these west coast games are brutal. |
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Post by azbob643 on Sept 17, 2024 18:34:50 GMT -5
Not sure if I can handle west coast games this week. Working 6am's Going to be difficult for me too. I get up to work out before I go to work, so these west coast games are brutal. Actually, not a fan myself. I prefer east coast day games which start at 10:00 am for me, and night games starting at 4:00 pm. |
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Post by pippsheadache on Sept 17, 2024 18:51:42 GMT -5
Going to be difficult for me too. I get up to work out before I go to work, so these west coast games are brutal. Actually, not a fan myself. I prefer east coast day games which start at 10:00 am for me, and night games starting at 4:00 pm. Nothing like watching East Coast games when you're living on the West Coast. I loved brunch baseball. The only game I'll see in this series is the one on Thursday afternoon at a convenient 4:05. |
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Post by rizzuto on Sept 17, 2024 18:52:19 GMT -5
Going to be difficult for me too. I get up to work out before I go to work, so these west coast games are brutal. Actually, not a fan myself. I prefer east coast day games which start at 10:00 am for me, and night games starting at 4:00 pm. I was a fan when I lived in California. Not at all now in Texas. If I stay up and watch the game and it's an exciting knee-slapping win in the ninth, I won't go to sleep at all, making my work day less than ideal. I'm still keyed up from the Saints first two games. |
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Post by pippsheadache on Sept 17, 2024 18:55:52 GMT -5
Giants up 4-0 over the Orioles in the fifth. They have at least as many issues as the Yankees.
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