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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 17:23:33 GMT -5
I'm selfishly starting the game thread because I'm going to be eating dinner shortly and I didn't want to rush through positing all the pre-game stuff. Sorry.
I'll break pattern and start with the lineups and batter vs. pitcher stats...
Yankees' lineup vs. Kremer:
1. Torres (2B) is 5-21 with 2 doubles, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K, and 1 sac bunt
2. Soto (RF) is 2-7 with a solo HR, 2 BB and 2 K
3. Judge (CF) is 4-13 with 3 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP and 1 GIDP
4. Wells (C) is 2-5 with a solo HR
5. Stanton (DH) is 5-16 with 1 BB and 6 K
6. Chisholm (3B) has never faced Kremer before
7. Rizzo (1B) 1-13 with 3 K, 1 HBP and 1 GIDP
8. Volpe (SS) is 1-10 with 1 double, 1 BB and 3 K
9. Verdugo (LF) is 7-22, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB and 5 K.
On the bench: Trevino is 2-3 with 1 BB; Grisham is 2-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, and 2 BB; Cabrera is 2-7 with 1 K.
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O’s Lineup vs Schmidt:
1. Henderson (SS) is 4-13 with 2 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB and 2 K
2. Rutschman (C) is 1-11 with 3 BB, 5 K and 1 HBP
3. Santander (RF) is 4-15 with 2 RBI, 1 BB (IBB) and 1 K
4. Cowser (LF) is 0-3 with 1 BB and 1 K
5. Westburg (2B) is 2-4 with 1 double
6. O’Hearn (1B) is 3-10 with 2 doubles, 1 BB and 3 K
7. Kjerstad (DH) has never faced Schmidt
8. Urias (3B) is 1-6 with 1 RBI, 1 BB and 2 K
9. Mullins (CF) is 0-9 with 2 Bb and 3 K
On the Bench: Rivera is 0-2; McCann is 0-3 with 1 BB and 2 K; Jimenez is 1-6 with 1 RBI, 1 K and 2 GIDP
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 17:25:05 GMT -5
OK, now the series preview:
The Yanks are back in the Bronx for their final homestand of the regular season to find a familiar foe waiting: the Baltimore Orioles, last year’s East winners, who have all but lost their attempt to defend that title. They’d have to sweep this series, then go to Minnesota to sweep a Twins team desperate to get back a Wild Card slot that they’ve blown in the last two weeks, and the Yanks would have get swept by a Pirates team that has fallen apart in the 2nd half of the season and is plugging young guys into the lineup everywhere to see if they can be key parts of next year’s Pirates. Let’s just say that the odds of the O’s repeating as division champs at this point are long indeed.
The Orioles outclassed the Yanks in the first two series between the teams, taking 3 of 4 in Baltimore at the end of May, and two of 3 more from the Yanks in June, outscoring the Yanks nearly 2-1 at 39-21. The Yanks got some of that back by winning 2 of 3 in Camden Yards just before the All-Star break, and nearly sweeping the series, when they came from behind on a 3 run HR in the 9th by Ben Rice off of Craig Kimbrel, but failed to close it out as Clay Holmes gave up some bleeders, a walk, there was an error behind him, and Cedric Mullins walked it off with a crushing 2 run double. So, the O’s lead the season’s series 6-4 coming into this one, and that’s the only reason they’re still alive for the division title.
After the Verdugo game in Fenway, the Yanks were 50-22, but had just a 3 ½ game lead because Baltimore had played nearly as well; they were 45-24. Exactly 6 weeks later, the Yanks had gone through a horrific slump, and after another terrible loss in Fenway in which Weaver and Holmes combined to blow a 7-4 lead in the 7th and 8th innings, they had lost 23 of 33, hitting their nadir at 60-45. The O’s should have blown the race open in that stretch, but the Yanks got an enormous break: the O’s failed to fully capitalize, going 16-18, gaining just 5 ½ games, moving into first, but with just a 2-game lead. If they had played .600 ball in that stretch by going 20-14, they’d have had a 6-game lead, and the division race would likely have been over.
The Yanks stabilized themselves over the next 5-6 weeks, winning 5 in a row, then playing .500 ball over the next 30 games, and the O’s were basically .500 at 21-20, so as of September 4th, the O’s lead was down to ½ game. Since then, the Yanks have gotten good starting pitching, mostly good relief work and just enough hitting to win 12 of 16, while the O’s floundered, even against some weaker teams, losing 10 of 15, and the Yanks ran away to their current 6 game lead.
What went wrong for the O’s? The biggest thing is multiple, serious injuries to the rotation; two of their young starters who took major steps forward last years, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells both went down with major elbow injuries; torn UCL and TJ surgery for Bradish and UCL revision and brace for Wells. They called up John Means one of their best pitching prospects, as one replacement for the two who had gone down, and he was excellent in 4 starts before he too, went down with a torn UCL and TJ surgery. Maybe the last straw for the rotation was when #2 starter Garyson Rodriguez went down in late July with a strained lat, the same injury that knocked Clark Schmidt out of the Yankees’ rotation for three months. He was supposed to be back in action at some point in September, but he hasn’t started rehabbing yet, and the word from Baltimore is they hope to have him back for the post-season. Their next best pitching prospect, Cade Povich, came up and although he was highly rated, he’s been a disaster, even after sending him back down and recalling him, virtually his only good start came against the historically woeful White Sox. Last year, the O’s were 5th in the AL in team ERA, this year, they’re 8th. They allowed 3.6 runs per game in that first 45-24 stretch; since then, 4.9 runs per game.
But maybe the biggest pitching injury the O’s suffered was not to any of their starters, although all of those now appear to be costly; it was the injured UCL their elite closer Felix Bautista suffered in August last year. They tried to have him rehab and return for the post-season, but he tore the UCL outright. The O’s management reacted swiftly and sensibly, signing Phillies’ closer Craig Kimbrel to a 1-year deal in December. It seemed to be working well until the All-Star Break; Kimber had a couple of bad stretches, but was having an excellent season in mid-July, 23 saves and a 2.10 ERA. Then he fell into another bad stretch, giving up 6 runs in 3 games in 2 2/3 innings, blown save in one game, taking a loss in another, and the O’s felt they had to do something to shore up their pen, so they traded outfielder Austin Hays to the Phillies for their occasional closer, Seranthony Dominguez. Kimbrel continued to be a gas can in a set-up roll with an ERA of 6.40 in 13 games over the next 6 weeks, and they stopped using him. After an 8-day layoff, he gave up 6 ER in 2/3 of an innings against the Giants last Tuesday, and realizing he was a lost cause, the O’s DFAed him. Meanwhile, Dominguez has had troubles of his own in the closer’s role. The surface numbers have been decent: 3.54 ERA in 20+ innings, but 6 HR allowed, 2 blown saves and a loss to go with 9 saves, and they’ve reluctant to move good set-up reliever Yennier Cano into the closer’s chair. As I’ve said several times about Clay Holmes, there’s nothing that destroys the confidence of a contending team faster than not being able to rely on the closer to finish games, or blowing them repeatedly, and that’s a large part of why the O’s haven’t been able to put the Yankees away.
In this bad streak, the O’s talented young hitters have also suffered a big drop-off, 5.0 runs per game in the first 141 games, 2.7 in the last 15 games. They have very talented young hitters up and down the order, but many of them have disappointed this season. When we last saw Adley Rutschman, he was having a very good season; he enters this series batting .252 with an OBA of .321 and an OPS of .717. They just got Ryan Mountcastle back after a month on the IL with a wrist injury. After a flurry of HRs on his 2nd callup, uberprospect Jackson Holliday has vanished in a downpour of strikeouts, batting .168 in 113 at bats with 40 K’s in his last 32 starts. Cedric Mullins still gets a big hit here and there, but he’s batting .228 for the season. O’Hearn usually kills the Yanks, but he’s batting .232 with just 2 HRs in 46 starts since the last time they played in mid-July. Santander and Henderson have been holding up the whole team the last couple of months; they’re still as dangerous as ever.
In short, the O’s, when they get their starters back next year, and they get Bautista back, and their young guys assimilate the experience of struggling for the first time, they should be an angry, dangerous team next year. They still look the team of the future in the AL East, but it seems that unlike the Washington Redskins under George Allen, the future is NOT now. Well, the playoffs will decide that possibly premature evaluation. At the moment, the Yanks need just one win to wrap the East up, and rain in the forecast the next couple of days. They face a hot Corbin Burnes in game 3. The Yanks should keep their foot on the gas, and work hard to make it happen tonight.
Sweep the leg, Johnny. You got a problem with that?
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 17:25:40 GMT -5
Righty Dean Kramer opens the series for the Orioles; he’s pitched twice against the Yanks this season, and the O’s won both starts. Since the last one just before the break, Kremer’s made 11 starts, going 3-5 with an ERA of 3.96. He’s 1-1 in his last 5, pitching well in 2, poorly in 2 and so-so in 1. He struck out 7 and walked none his last time out against the Giants, but still gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in 6 innings and took the loss, 5-3. There’s no need to recap his career, but on the season, Kremer is 7-10 in 23 starts with an ERA of 4.19. In 124 2/3 innings, he’s allowed 107 hits, 71 runs, 58 earned, 17 HR and 49 walks with 120 K’s. His WHIP on the season is a slightly better than average 1.251. This is his 12th start against the Yanks, he’s been better the last 2 seasons than he was earlier. Overall, he’s 3-3 vs. New York, 56 1/3 innings, 54 hits, 30 runs, 29 earned, 13 HR and 23 BB with 62 K’s. His WHIP against the Yanks is a tolerable 1.367, and their team quadruple slash line against him is .252/.329/.467/.797. This year, he pitched 7 strong innings against them in the 4-game series in Baltimore in late April and early May, giving up just 2 solo HRs in a 4-2 win. In his last start against the Yanks, he couldn’t get through the 5th with a 2-1 lead, giving up the tying run before departing: 4 2/3 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs (earned) 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K’s.
Repertoire: Kremer is a 5-pitch righty: 4-seamer, cutter, sinker, splitter and curve. The 4-seam has above average ‘run’ and average tail. The cutter has below average drop and elite break in on lefties, top 10% in MLB. The sinker has well below average drop and below average tail away from lefties. The splitter has well below average drop and average tail. The curve has above average drop, but below average break away from righties. In run values, the curve is a small plus, the splitter is neutral, the 4-seam is a small minus, and the cutter and sinker are bigger minuses, at least per pitch. The chase rate, FB velocity and FB spin are all below average, and his extension is well below average. The curve spin is nearly elite, top 20% in MLB. The average exit velocity is solidly below average, as is the hard-hit rate. Paradoxically, the barrel rate is quite high, nearly 10%. The line drive rate is quite low, the ground ball rate is below average, the flyball rate is above average and so is the popup rate. The swinging strike rate is well below average, but the called strike rate is above average, so the CSW is slightly below average. The luck factors are a mixed bad. His strand rate is well below average, but the BABIP and HR/FB rate are below average as well. His ERA estimators think his ERA should be higher, but not by much, 4.34 as opposed to the actual 4.19. The pitch mix so far this season, with one or maybe two starts left: 4-seamer averaging 93 about 32%, cutter 87 about 23%, splitter 84 about 18%. Sinker 92-3 about 15% and curve 77 about 12%.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 17:26:43 GMT -5
Playing the Name Game: We did the name game for him back in April. A dozen MLB players with first name Dean, and about twice as many with last name Dean. Of the former, the best is Dean Chance, Of the latter, the best was Hall of Famer Jay Hanna "Dizzy" Dean, who made the Hall of Fame The other Kremer in MLB history was a very good pitcher himself, Ray Kremer, who was one of the key starters on the Pirates team that won it all in 1925, and got swept by the Murderer's Row Yankees in the 1927 World Series.
It occurred to me in looking over the past Name Games for Kremer, I never mentioned the best hitting Dean, namely Dean Palmer, who played mostly 3rd base for the Rangers, Tigers and Royals for 14 seasons from 1989 through 2003. He made the All-Star team with the Royals in 1998, and won a Silver Slugger that year and the next with the Tigers. He hit over 30 HR four times, and knocked in over 100 runs 4 times, and retired with a lifetime BAVG of .251, over 1200 hits and 275 career home runs. Palmer’s only postseason experience was the ALDS in 1996, when in game 1 against the Yanks and David Cone, he hit a 2-run HR as part of a 5-run 4th inning, and the Rangers won the 1st game 6-2. The Yanks would go on to sweep the next 3, their first postseason series win in 15 seasons, and the first series win in the first of 4 titles the late 90s Dynasty Yankees would take home. There has never been a hitting Kremer, but Jimmy Kremers was a backup catcher for the Braves in 1990. His career stat line has one oddity, which is probably very rare in major league history. In his one season, he hit exactly one double, one triple and one HR in 73 at bats. He had just 5 singles in that one-year career, and retired with a BAVG of .110.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 17:27:45 GMT -5
Clarke Schmidt goes for the Yanks: he’s pitched fairly well in 3 starts since coming off the IL, but hasn’t won a game yet. 3 ER in 14 2/3 innings, just 1 HR. On the season, Schmidt is 5-4 with a 2.37 ERA. In 76 innings in 14 starts, he’s allowed 64 hits, 24 runs, 20 earned, 7 HR and 25 BB with 81 K’s. His WHIP is very good 1.171. In 10 games (5 starts) vs. the O’s, he’s 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA. In 32 2/3 innings, he’s allowed 28 hits, 16 runs, 14 earned, 4 HR, 16 BB and struck out 26. His WHIP against Baltimore is a sub-par 1.347, and their team quadruple slash line against him is .224/.319/.392/.711. In his only start against the O’s, Schmidt was a tough luck loser in a 2-0 Yankee loss in the 4-game series in Baltimore early in the season, giving up just a lead-off HR to Henderson to start the game, then shutting the O’s out for the next 5 2/3 innings, allowing just 2 more hits, 3 BB and striking out 5. Grayson Rodriguez shut the Yanks out in his 5 2/3 innings, getting the win.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 17:28:28 GMT -5
Yesterday: the Yanks, O’s and Rays had the day off.
The Sox kept their very late effort to get back into a Wild Card Slot alive by beating the Jays, 4-1 at Rogers Centre. Tanner Houck pitched 5 shutout innings, giving up just 1 hit and 1 BB, getting the win to improve to 9-10 on the season. 4 relievers held the Jays to 1 run over the last 4 innings, and the only reason that Chris Martin, the last of the four, came in with a 4-0 lead and gave up the Jays’ only run. Wilyer Abreu had 2 hits and knocked in a run with a double, and Cedanne Rafaela knocked in two with a RBI single and a run-scoring groundout. Chris Bassitt gave up the first 3 Sox runs in 4 1/3 innings and took the loss, dropping to 10-14.
In Houston, Bryce Miller threw 7 shutout innings of 2 hit ball, striking out 5, and the M’s coasted to a 6-1 win over the Astros. Julio Rodriguez had another big game with 3 hits, 2 RBI and a stolen base; Victor Robles is back in the lineup and got 2 hits and scored 2 runs for the Mariners. Hunter Brown pitched another superb game but got saddled with the loss: 6 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 walk and 8 K’s, dropping to 11-9 on the season. With the win, Miller improved to 12-8.
The Yanks remain 6 games ahead of the O’s coming to tonight’s game, and the Magic Number is 1. The O’s still have the first wild card, the Tigers and Royals are in a flat-footed tie for the 2nd and 3rd wild card, with the Royals holding the tiebreak, having won the season’s series from Detroit 7-6. The Twins are one game back of both, and the Mariners are ½ game behind Minnesota (1 game on the loss side). The Sox and Rays remained alive, 2 ½ and 3 games back of Seattle, and both with tragic numbers of 3. The Sox suffered a major blow when they lost closer Kenley Jasen, possibly for the season, to the IL with shoulder inflammation.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 17:28:54 GMT -5
In games of import today:
This afternoon, the Tigers kept chugging through the competition on the strength of their pitching, taking a pitchers’ duel from the Rays in Detroit, 2-1. Tarik Skubal shut out Tampa for 7 innings on 2 hits, striking out 7. Skubal is now 18-4 on the season and remains poised to start the last game of the season on Sunday should the Tigers’ need him to. Ryan Pepiot pitched solidly, 2 ER in 5 innings, but took the loss, dropping to 8-7. Wencel Perez hit a 2-run double in the 5th for the Detroit runs. Everyday Beau Brieske pitched the last two innings for the Tigers, giving up a solo HR to Brandon Lowe with 2 down in the 9th, but held on for his 1st save of the season. The win puts the Tigers alone ahead of the Royals for the 2nd Wild Cards and nearly knocks the Rays out of the Wild Card chase; their tragic number is down to 1. The Tigers added reinforcements by calling up one of the best pitching prospects in MLB, Jackson Jobe. He’s not currently scheduled to start for them, but might help out their bullpen some instead.
The Royals go to the nation’s capital to take on the Nats in a 3-game series starting at 6:45 pm tonight. KC’s other ace, Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.24 ERA) starts for Kansas City; he’s pitched three excellent games in a row but hasn’t won the last two. Rookie lefty Mitchell Parker (7-10, 4.44 ERA) goes for Washington. Parker was hammered by the white-hot Mets last time out after a very good game against the Marlins the time before.
At 7:07 pm, the Red Sox try to keep their small playoff chances alive, playing the 2nd of three games at Rogers Centre. Brayan Bello (14-8, 4.49 ERA) looking for his fourth straight strong start, throws for Boston and Bowden Francis (8-5, 3.47 ERA), closing the season on a 4-2, 1.67 ERA heater in 8 starts, goes for Toronto
At 7:40 pm, the Twins get a momentary bit of schedule luck as the miserable Marlins come in for a 3-game series. Ryan Weathers, (3-6, 3.94 ERA) makes his 2nd start for the Marlins after nearly 3 months on the IL; he was blasted by the Dodgers in his first game back. Bailey Ober (14-8, 3.84 ERA) starts for Minnesota; he’s pitched very well in 3 of his last 4 starts, but no wins to show for them. After the Marlins leave Minnesota, the much tougher Orioles come in to close out the season.
At 8:10 in Houston, the Mariners play the 2nd of 3 games against the Astros. Logan Gilbert (8-11, 3.24 ERA) pitches for Seattle coming off his win against the Yankees last time out. Framber Valdez (14-7, 2.85 ERA) starts for Houston. Valdez has been in top form for 2 ½ months, 7-2 in his last 12 starts with an ERA of 1.70 and he’s now 2nd in the AL in ERA, behind only Skubal. Gilbert will be trying to keep the Mariners’ small Wild Card and even smaller division title hopes alive; the Mariners are 4 games behind the Astros with 5 to play.
And at 7:07 pm at the Stadium, it’s Kremer vs. Schmidt. See you then.
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Post by JEGnj on Sept 24, 2024 18:06:32 GMT -5
Let's wrap it up tonight and get ready for Playoffs.
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Post by chiyankee on Sept 24, 2024 18:07:12 GMT -5
Let's take care of the division tonight and focus on home field advantage
And oh yeah, Dominquez should be in the line up tonight and the rest of the games this week, it makes no sense that he's on the bench.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 18:07:36 GMT -5
Weather at game time, 65°F, cloudy, rain not expected tonight. Chance of rain less than 5% through the game.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 18:08:49 GMT -5
Yanks take the field. Schmidt starts his final warmups. Henderson getting ready to step in the box.
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Post by chiyankee on Sept 24, 2024 18:10:04 GMT -5
Clark Schmidt with a chance to make a late push to be included in the post season rotation.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 18:10:38 GMT -5
Schmidt finished with his warmups. Henderson steps into the box.
Game underway...
Sinker outside, waist high, ball 1.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 24, 2024 18:12:42 GMT -5
Henderson...
Sinker thigh high, outside corner, foul tipped, 1-1
Sinker outside at 97 (!). Schmidt amped up for the clincher. Not a great thing
Cutter in the zone down and in, swung over, 2-2
Cutter inner 3rd above the waist, fouled back.
Cutter dives inside, Henderson can't lay off, swings over, K, 1 down.
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Post by chiyankee on Sept 24, 2024 18:13:59 GMT -5
Schmidt starts the game on fire.
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