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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 22:51:18 GMT -5
Part IV - The Royals’ hitting, and what the Yanks have to try to do:
The Royals will have a key hitter back that they didn’t have in the series at the Stadium: 1st baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. He didn’t have a great year by analytical measurement, just a .760 OPS, good for an OPS+ of 111, but he was able to take advantage of all the good work Witt did setting up both Perez and Paasquantino himself. In 131 games, he hit 19 HR and knocked in 97 runs, including a league-leading 13 sac flies. He’s an average defender, but he lengthens their lineup and their bench.
In terms of the Yankee pitching game plan against the Royals’ offense, it basically should have three parts. Witt is elite and will do his thing; the Yanks need to reduce him from superhuman to merely excellent. They have to find a way to limit the damage from the other Royals’ pest hitters, Garcia, Fermin, Isbel, Renfroe, and though he’s better than a pest, Pasquantino. And above all, they have to keep Sal Perez from forming his own elite 1-2 with Witt (to match Soto & Judge). Perez is dangerous, but he isn’t really elite, except against the Yanks. He’s a solid hitter against the rest of the league, but has beaten up the Yanks since 2018. He absolutely owned them that year. Missed playing against them in both 2019 and 2020 (COVID season, no games outside the division). Hit for a low BAVG against them in 2021-3, but still hits 6 HR and drove in 18 runs against them in 18 games in those seasons, and they couldn’t get him out in the series at the Stadium last month. He was 9-21 against them this year with a HR and 5 RBI, but an ominous reversal of his career strike zone control numbers: 6 BB and just 3 K. They tried to pitch around him in the 2nd and 3rd games, and he STILL hurt them in both. The Royals have more steals on the team from just Garcia, Blanco and Witt than the Yanks have all season from everybody. The slightly better news there is that Wells should be starting all 5 games, and he threw out 26% of base stealers, better than league average, to Trevino’s 19%, which is below the AL average. Blanco is a ghost-runner weapon for the Royals, albeit offset somewhat by Berti for the Yanks.
If I'm the Royals, I'm doing everything I can to work counts and make the Yankees' starters throw pitches to get them out earlier and get the Yanks weak middle/long relief (Mayza and the long men, whoever they are) into the game. This will not be easy for them to do; at 3.80 pitches per plate appearance, the Royals were 14th in the league in that category. (The Yanks were 2nd to the Mariners at 3.99, for what it's worth.)
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 22:54:42 GMT -5
Part V - The Yankees’ hitting and what the Yanks have to do against the Royals’ pitching:
In terms of the hitting attack against the Royals, things don’t look great. Both teams get to avoid a 4th starter, which reduces a Yankee advantage: they had no real trouble against Singer, and Clarke Schmidt pitched well in rotation for the most part. The Yanks have no idea how he’ll fare if needed against the Royals, now that he’s back in the bullpen. With Rizzo down, and the Yanks facing the possibility of getting little to nothing from Rice, and probably from Verdugo or Dominguez as well, that puts extra pressure on the team’s decent-to-good hitters: Wells, Chisholm, Stanton and Torres, to contribute in multiple games, or the offense becomes a two-legged stool. One of the legs, Soto, is as sturdy as can be. It does bother me some that he slumped in the last 20 games, batting just .239. He wasn’t drawing fewer walks than usual, but he was chasing fastballs above the zone and striking out much more than usual, 21 K’s in 85 PA and 67 at bats. He still had multiple clutch hits and won several games for the Yanks, but against elite pitching in the post-season which will shut down the Yankees’ lesser bats, he can’t chase and he can’t slump.
The other leg, Judge, worries me for a different reason: he has holes that can be pitched to. He has a lot of post-season home runs, 13 in just 44 games, but just 25 RBI and a TON of K’s, exactly 1/3 of his post-season plate appearances, and his career post-season BAVG is .211. Of the 13 HR he has hit, how many were important in the games he hit them in? Not many; a few. Most of them early in the game, some of them with the Yanks already holding a multi-run lead. He has 19 RBI on those 13 HR, which means just 6 RBI on other hits in 44 post-season games. His cumulative WPA over those 44 postseason games is just +0.35. Alex Rodriguez, with multiple post-season disasters on his ledger and the one great playoff run in 2009, is +1.00 in 76 games. Barry Bonds, also noted for multiple post-season failures, is still +1.18 in 42 games, thanks to his brilliant 2002 post-season. Judge must still prove he can hit in the big spots in a post-season on a, well, not necessarily an everyday basis, certainly, but on a much more consistent basis, or the Yanks won’t win a title, and might not make it past KC. To be sure, some of his troubles were caused by weaker hitters behind him in past post-seasons, but having Soto bat in front of him rather than behind doesn’t’ fix that problem. To me, much also hinges on the Yankees 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th-best hitters, the ones I named above, but Judge has to answer the bell more often if they’re to get very far in the playoffs. Soto proved he could do that as a teenager in 2019, especially in the World Series against the Astros. Now, it’s Judge’s turn to figure out how to do this. This was his most complete regular-season, edging out 2022. But he didn’t finish that season off in the playoffs: 5 for 36, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 15 K and just 2 BB in 38 PA. He must do better this time around, and maybe, just maybe, with the Astros out of the way, he will.
I’ve left Volpe out of this discussion area so far. To me, he’s the wild card in on offense. He can get hot for weeks at a time, and cold for months. The good news is this: he’s better when not worn down by constant play; he will be coming in on five days of rest and there will be multiple days off during rounds of the playoffs and between them as well. The bad news is this: he gets himself out with bad mental and physical habits at the plate, and elite post-season pitchers can and will exploit that.
Overall, the Yankee running game is weak, basically just Chisholm and Volpe, and the Royals have Perez, who’s decent at throwing runners out, 23% and Fermin, who is among the tops in baseball, 45%. So much so, teams don’t try him much, 21 steals and 17 caught in 72 starts at catcher.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 22:58:32 GMT -5
Part VI - The Yankees pitchers against the Royals:
The Yankees starting pitching looks like it should be sound against the Royals. KC won two straight low-scoring 1-run games against Baltimore, 1-0 and 2-1, and the likes of Cole, Rodon and Gil should be able to pitch competitively against a relatively weak Royals lineup, and possibly very well, game by game. For those willing to indulge my strange speculations; game time weather conditions for Game 2 with Rodon on the mound will be: temperature in the low 60’s, highish humidity, light winds, 5-10% chance of rain, so the “Carlos-can’t-handle-the-heat” theory should not be in play. We’ll see if he can handle heat of a different kind; he’s pitched just twice in the post-season; one poor relief appearance in 2020, and one poor start in 2021. Gil has to hold his release point and motion together, and not get over-amped. Cole will be Cole, likely excellent but not necessarily dominant. He’s not facing the Red Sox this post-season, and only gets the Mets if both teams are in the World Series.
In the pen, the move of Holmes out of the closer roles was unavoidable, and the swap to Weaver appears to have worked down the stretch. Whether Weaver can hold up under the extreme pressure of October baseball…nobody knows. He’s been brilliant since being installed in the role. As I’ve pointed out, no mis-steps in 8 games since assuming the job: save, hold, win, save, win, save, save, and win. In 11 innings, just 4 hits, 1 unearned run (he let the ghost runner score, but only AFTER the Yanks got 3 in the top of the 10 in one of the games in Oakland), 3 BB, 24 K’s, 0.00 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, K/9 of 19.6, and a preposterous K rate of 60%. To me, the performance of the rest of the “good” relievers, Kahnle, Hill, Hamilton and even Holmes depends on Weaver holding up in the role. If he’s able to close out wins against tough teams without blowing games, even if he yields a run here and there, then they should relax and fall in line and pitch well, too. It’s possible that even Holmes might straighten out and fly right in a lower-leverage role. Getting Cousins back will help, especially against the better righties on the Royals like Perez and even Witt, and maybe Renfroe, if the Royals let him bat against Cousins in a big spot. Boone will probably have to lean more heavily on his good relievers than Quattro leans on his: Rodon and Gil are less likely to make it through 6 or 7 innings than Ragans or Wacha. The consistent off days through the entirety of the series will help.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 23:02:15 GMT -5
Part VII - Miscellaneous
As for other things: the Royals have a big edge in team speed; the Yanks can’t let the Royals turn this series into a track meet, as the Red Sox did in June, or it’s a loss. Fortunately, in post-season play, if you get strong pitching and solid defense, team speed is not usually a significant factor. The Royals will steal some bases; the key is shutting down their weaker hitters so that Witt is the only one in a position to steal on a regular basis. On defense, the Yankees have the better team Defensive Efficiency Rating. The Royals have committed fewer errors, but the difference is minor, just 8 errors over 162 games. The Yanks have allowed 64 unearned runs; the Royals, 48. In the advanced metrics, the Royals are +38 in Defensive Runs Saved, the Yanks are +31. In Statcast Fielding Run Value, the Yanks and Royals are tied at +35, but the Royals are +36 Outs Above Average and the Yanks are just +8. And the Royals are better at throwing out base stealers, 5 Defensive Runs Saved to the Yanks 2. One more small edge to KC, the Royals have turned 105 GIDP and the Yanks have turned 93.
So where do the Yanks get back the defensive runs? Catchers framing pitches. How many games have those of you in the game thread seen me remark that the Yanks are getting the better of the calls? Not merely a few. How frustrating was it to watch the Rays steal games with framing 10 years ago, 5 years ago. Well, as he usually is, Cashman is a good follower of other teams’ innovations, and he’s followed that trend to a T: the Yankee catchers are 2nd in all of MLB in Runs Saved by framing pitches: +20.1, behind only the extraordinary Patrick Bailey and the Giants, +20.8. The Royals are 17th at -2 runs. There’s the missing 20 runs on defense.
As for the managers, ah, well, we know Mr. Boone will follow the analytics and is likely to corner himself in 1 or 2 games in this series. Whether the Royals Quattro is better, or by how much…nobody yet knows. And don’t underestimate the ability of 3rd base coach Luis Rojas to make a wrong send or a wrong hold or change his mind mid-signal and kill a key inning.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 23:04:54 GMT -5
Part VIII - Clutch hitting and clutch pitching; the hitting first:
The Royals lead the AL in BAVG with RISP at .282, mostly due to their low strikeout rate, but despite all their troubles, the Yanks have improved back to 4th at .262. The Yanks draw a lot more walks with RISP, but surprisingly the teams have close to the same number of intentional walks, 26 for the Yanks, 22 for the Royals. I guess teams want to pitch around Witt and Perez almost as much as Soto and Judge (Just Judge actually; he has 20, Soto has just 2, and Witt and Perez have 9 each). In unintentional walks (That doesn’t generally lead to more runs, although the Yanks have 12 walks with the bases loaded to the Royals’ 6) with RISP, the Yanks have 177 and the Royals 136, so their OBA are nearly the same: .348 for the Royals, .344 for the Yanks. The Yanks have hit 61 HR with RISP to the Royals 43, and the Yanks have the edge in slugging and OPS: .465 and .809 to Kansas City’s .446 and .794. In all, the Yanks have scored 566 runs with RISP, and the Royals 556.
With RISP and two outs, the situation is the same: the Royals have the better BAVG, .235 to .230, but the Yanks have more walks, more HR and the higher OPS: .738 to .720, and 6 more runs scored.
It comes up the same in late and close. Royals: .241 BAVG, .683 OPS and 126 runs, Yankees: .234 BAVG, .709 OPS and 126 runs, although it should be noted the Royals played more close games: 101 to the Yanks’ 87 (AL team average was 101 close games).
Same thing again in high leverage. Royals: .254 BAVG, .713 OPS and 270 runs scores. Yankees: .249 BAVG/.744 OPS and 291 runs scored, although the Yanks did have 58 more PA in high leverage, 1067 to 1009.
On the pitching side:
The Royals allow a .242 BAVG with RISP and a .706 OPS. For the Yanks, it’s .237 and .699. The Royals have allowed 279 with RISP, the Yanks, 271.
With 2 outs and RISP, it’s .212 BAVG, .696 OPS and 197 runs for KC, .205, .626 and 179 for the Yanks.
In Late & Close, it’s .281/.779 and 119 for the Royals, .211/.619 and 98 for the Yanks. Keep in mind the Royals fixed their closer and set-up problems in the 2nd half and probably rank much higher, compared to the league, since about mid-August on.
In High Leverage, it’s .249/.701 and 240 for KC, and .218/.624 and 225 for the Yanks. The 2 teams are close in number of pitching high leverage PA, 957 for the Royals, 939 for the Yanks.
It would appear that the Royals have the better clutch hitting, but that advantage is all in batting average, so in 1-run games, that’s an edge. The Yanks have the better power, and can break up a close game with a big home run more often. On the pitching side, the Yanks have the same small edge.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 23:08:56 GMT -5
Part IX - What does all this mean? Summing it up from the floor…
I think the Royals have the edges in starting pitching, in team speed, in contact hitting, in defense on the field, and a likely edge in managing. Logically, those advantages should win them this series, especially the starting pitching and the contact hitting. The Yanks have home field, power hitting, and framing, which can be enormous in frustrating the other team’s hitters and getting them out of their games (Judge used to be one of the more heavily penalized hitters, especially balls below his very far above the ground knees, but I think he’s gotten the better of the calls on the whole this season, and Soto ALWAYS has that advantage because of his eye and its reputation. One caveat about that: in the playoffs, everything is more heavily scrutinized, and if the umps seem to be favoring the Yanks’ framing too much, they’ll get a call from the MLB office about it for sure, and it will change later in the series. If the framing advantage disappears because of league pressure, that becomes a problem for the Yanks.) I sure wish Rizzo was healthy; even if he wouldn’t have hit much, I’m not sure Rice will do any better than bad in that department, and I have a feeling that Rice’s throwing error saving/scoop ability, or lack thereof, might be crucial at some point in one or more games, even if it’s just failure to handle an off-target pivot throw on a double play from either Volpe or Torres.
The Yanks have one more advantage in my opinion: they’re older, and will be the more desperate team, especially because they know Soto might not be back. The Royals have a bright future ahead of them, and while a brash young team can announce their presence at any time, it will usually need 1-3 years to learn how vitally important each post-season series, each game is. The Orioles just proved that again. I think Baltimore, with their pitching healed, will come blasting out of the gate next season to get home-field and avoid the Wild Card round.
I think that relative inexperience on the Royals’ part and that relative desperation on the Yankees’ part will play a role in everything, especially in how Boone handles the bullpen with all the days off; much more important to the Yanks’ with their unreliable back of the pen guys who can and should be avoided for most, if not all, of this series, and almost certainly all the crucial innings, unless a game goes past, say, the 12th. Boone might be managing for his job in this series; a 1st round knockout against this young, flawed Royals team with Soto on his way out the door might be the last straw.
Or maybe not. Maybe knowing this is might be “the last round-up” puts too much pressure on them, and the Yanks fold like a cheap suitcase. But I don’t think so; if that happens, it’ll come against the Tigers in the next round, shutting them down cold with their pitching, or against one of the top NL teams, even a red-hot, all-but-impossible-to-put-down-for-good Mets team, who swept the Yanks 4 games with ease this year.
As baseball writer Joe Sheehan says when he does these things, the last sentence in a playoff series preview is always the least important:
Yankees in five games; four if they can take the first two at the Stadium.
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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 4, 2024 23:31:43 GMT -5
Good write up. I think it doesnt go past 4 if they win the first 2 as they usually play well in KC.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 5, 2024 0:07:37 GMT -5
If you're curious about what the James system says about the other three Division Series:
Cleveland 103, Detroit 37 (Current odds look like Cleveland is a 5 1/2-6 1/2 favorite)
San Diego 116, Los Angeles 24 (Current odds have the Dodgers as about a 6-7 favorite)
Philadelphia 84, Mets 56. (Current odds have Philly as about an 8-9 favorite)
If you're looking for a live underdog, I think you're looking at the Padres. But the Mets...I dunno. They just seem like this year's team that will not die.
As for the Yanks, their current odds have them as a 8 1/2-10 favorite, and the over-under for the games played is 3 1/2. So to draw even action to both sides, the oddsmakers have called for the Yanks to win in 3 or 4 games. Gulp. I don't like it when the odds are that long when I think they should be shorter.
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 5, 2024 7:54:09 GMT -5
If you're looking for a live underdog, I think you're looking at the Padres. But the Mets...I dunno. They just seem like this year's team that will not die. Hilarious, the team with the highest payroll in the sport being passed off as some scrappy underdog. |
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Post by ypaterson on Oct 5, 2024 8:18:36 GMT -5
I am not sure if players need extra "motivation" to fuel their performance in the postseason. If that is the case, Michael Wacha might have an extra edge tonight. Going into the game Wacha knows he could be in line for a major payday. He has an option to become a free agent and one or two good outings could move him from being rich to being RICH !!!
kingsofkauffman.com/posts/kc-royals-have-michael-wacha-problem-they-must-address/2
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Post by Max on Oct 5, 2024 10:18:56 GMT -5
I am not sure if players need extra "motivation" to fuel their performance in the postseason. If that is the case, Michael Wacha might have an extra edge tonight. Going into the game Wacha knows he could be in line for a major payday. He has an option to become a free agent and one or two good outings could move him from being rich to being RICH !!!
By those same standards, that would mean Torres, Soto, Holmes, Verdugo, Kahnle, Hill, would also have an extra edge since they are all free agents after this season. |
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Post by azbob643 on Oct 5, 2024 10:23:14 GMT -5
I am not sure if players need extra "motivation" to fuel their performance in the postseason. If that is the case, Michael Wacha might have an extra edge tonight. Going into the game Wacha knows he could be in line for a major payday. He has an option to become a free agent and one or two good outings could move him from being rich to being RICH !!!
By those same standards, that would mean Torres, Soto, Holmes, Verdugo, Kahnle, Hill, would also have an extra edge since they are all free agents after this season. The money's on Gleyber going to San Francisco... |
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Post by kaybli on Oct 5, 2024 10:38:14 GMT -5
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Post by bumper on Oct 5, 2024 11:05:22 GMT -5
roster pretty much as expected. bummer about rizzo. hopefully alcs. gonna guess rice gets the start over cabrera probably wanting to save him for a late inning situation. and of course ellis is here only to pinch run in the grand tradition of yankee PS runners.
dropping stroman from the roster no surprise. really no role for him in the PS - especially the short series with all the days off. would be a mop-up guy at best. also makes his yankee future questionable.
this is the best the bullpen has looked all season. the only guy i don't trust is mayza and he's here to get the garbage innings if any. and while i wouldn't trust holmes in a high leverage spot, he has pitched better lately. you can use him with a big lead or maybe the team trailing early and you don't wanna blow through your leverage guys. hopefully cousins is 100%.
the elephant in the room is the LF starter. think in most situations they choose defense over offense and dominguez hasn't shown much there since his call-up, so think they go w verdugo. there's the possibility that they go w jasson for 2 ABs before dugo comes in, but in the PS every out is precious, and doubt they take a chance on the martian.
will the real yankees please step up. let the games begin!!!!
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Post by ypaterson on Oct 5, 2024 11:05:39 GMT -5
I am not sure if players need extra "motivation" to fuel their performance in the postseason. If that is the case, Michael Wacha might have an extra edge tonight. Going into the game Wacha knows he could be in line for a major payday. He has an option to become a free agent and one or two good outings could move him from being rich to being RICH !!!
By those same standards, that would mean Torres, Soto, Holmes, Verdugo, Kahnle, Hill, would also have an extra edge since they are all free agents after this season. I agree. I wouldn't argue with anyone who wrote that the majority of guys playing tonight don't have any guarantees. The article was worth reading as it hihglighted how well the KC Royals did with their free agent money last winter. |
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