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Post by chiyankee on Oct 4, 2024 18:11:53 GMT -5
I'd rather see Rizzo out there.
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Post by bigjeep on Oct 4, 2024 19:18:16 GMT -5
I'm ready! I think the Yankees have the best shot to get to the WS than they have had in many years! So much going on, the Knicks, Giants and Yankees all at the same time!  |
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 4, 2024 20:37:51 GMT -5
Not surprising. Stinks big time for Rizzo and the Yankees.
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Post by kaybli on Oct 4, 2024 21:05:46 GMT -5
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 4, 2024 21:06:15 GMT -5
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Post by kaybli on Oct 4, 2024 21:07:39 GMT -5
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Post by kaybli on Oct 4, 2024 21:10:45 GMT -5
I'd rather see Rizzo out there. I only want to see him as a defensive replacement. Let Rice have a chance after his hot finish in Scranton. |
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Post by kaybli on Oct 4, 2024 21:14:11 GMT -5
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 4, 2024 21:15:16 GMT -5
I'd rather see Rizzo out there. I only want to see him as a defensive replacement. Let Rice have a chance after his hot finish in Scranton. DJ shouldn't even be on the active roster since there's nothing he can do well anymore. |
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Post by kaybli on Oct 4, 2024 21:16:15 GMT -5
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Post by kaybli on Oct 4, 2024 21:57:05 GMT -5
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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 4, 2024 22:28:23 GMT -5
I'd rather see Rizzo out there. |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 22:37:18 GMT -5
My division series preview, one chunk at a time, because it's too long to put in one reply.
Love it, hate it, approve it, or tear its head off and cut the rest into pieces. I hope you'll enjoy reading it.
Part I - This year’s head-to-head in review:
The Yanks beat the Royals 5 of 7 this year, but the ALDS to come doesn’t look like an easy-win series. The Royals have 3 starters who can and have shut the Yankee offense down at time in the last few seasons. Two of them, Lugo and Wacha, have shut them down multiple times and with multiple teams. One can argue that in spite of the big money contracts at the top of the Yankee rotation, the Royals have a noticeable edge in the rotation, and that edge might be enough to win the series by itself.
The seven games the Yanks played the Royals this season went this way:
June 10th in KC: Yanks got two two-run rallies off of Seth Lugo in a slightly off appearance. Three straight singles by the Yanks in the 1st, with Verdugo knocking in the first run, and LeMahieu (batting 6th!) squeezing home the second run. In the 5th, Jahmai Jones sac bunted runners to 2nd and 3rd, and Trevino got them home with a line single to center. The Yanks can’t count on any of those four heroes right now, but they built the 4-0 lead, and Carlos Rodon make it stand up, pitching 7 strong innings, allowing just 3 hits and 1 run. The hero who closed it out isn’t with the team either: Michael Tonkin.
June 11th in KC: The Yanks got 2 in the 1st off of Brady Singer, from a Judge RBI single and from Stanton, who somehow hit a ground ball force play that wasn’t a double play for the other, then basically knocked him Singer in the 4th with a RBI single from Torres and a 3-run HR by Wells. Cabrera singled in a run in the 6th to make it 7-0, and Judge and Stanton hit HRs in the 8th to make it 10-0. Stroman puzzled the Royals for 5 2/3 scoreless inning and the Yanks won 10-1.
June 12th in KC: The Royals tried a bullpen game, having Dan Altavilla open, but the Yanks nuked him with a 6-run 1st: two-run single by Verdugo, sac fly by Rizzo, capped off by a 3-run HR by Trevino. Daniel Lynch came-in as the bulk inning follower, gave up the HR to Trevino for the last of the six runs, 2 more in the 5th and 3 more in the 7th. The Royals got Cody Poteet out of the game with 2 in the 6th, and Ian Hamilton got them out of that jam, but then gave up 3 of his own in the 7th; and that’s the way it ended, another one-sided romp, 11-5.
June 13th in KC: The ill-fated day the season started to turn. The Yanks were 49-21 coming in, and were about to get a 4-game sweep to get to 50-21 when, with 2 outs in the 9th, Clay Holmes got Kyle Isbel down 0-2…and threw 7 more pitches: ball, ball, ball, single, moving Melendez to 3rd, (Garcia up) ball, ball, 2-run double down 3rd to walk it off. Yanks were 28 over .500 before that game and got back to that height once more, two days later, but they were a sub-.500 team the rest of the way, 45-47.
September 9th at the Stadium, Carlos Rodon pitched mostly well, 2 solo HR, and the other two runs off him scored on errors, one a throwing error, one when Gleyber Torres dropped a playable popup with 2 down. But the Yanks ambushed set up man McArthur on a RBI single by Judge and a 3-run HR by Wells, and pulled away late 10-4.
September 10th at the Stadium: This game was all Seth Lugo, utterly pantsing the Yankee lineup with his 8-pitch assortment, good for 7 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits and no walks, striking out 10. The Yanks didn’t have any of their all-too-frequent problems with runners in scoring position, mainly because they didn’t get a man in scoring position all night long. Marcus Stroman was…meh, giving up 7 hits and 3 runs in 5 1/3, but it didn’t matter, 1 run was too many, and the Royals won 5-0.
September 11th at the Stadium: The Yanks outfought the Royals in a tense, tight game. Ragans matched up against Gil, and his stuff looked awesome but the Yanks managed 2 runs off him in 6 innings thanks to a HR by Soto, while the Royals got 1 run off Gil on a HR by Massey in the 3rd. Clay Holmes demonstrated his versatility by blowing a save in the 7th on a sac fly by Perez. In the 10th, ghost-runner Blanco stole 3rd with one and scored on a Jake Cousins WP to give the Royals the lead back, but the Yanks battled back again as Cabrera bunted ghost-runner Volpe to 3rd and Wells got him in with a sac fly. Weaver got the Royals 1-2-3 in the 11th, and in the bottom, Soto moved ghost-runner Berti to 3rd with a soft grounder up the middle, and after Judge was walked intentionally, the Royals pulled the infield in and Jazz Chisholm walked it off with a ground ball single just past Witt’s dive back to his right. Final score: 4-3 Yanks.
As mentioned above, the Yanks won 5 of the 7 games, and outscored them, 42-24, winning three blowouts and losing one.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 22:39:02 GMT -5
Part II - The “Prediction System”
A break for a bit of somewhat murky methodology. In the 1984 Bill James Baseball Abstract, James introduced his World Series Prediction System, which he used for predicting the outcomes of Championship Series and World Series. Looking backwards, what the system does is compare the two teams’ stats across a wide sample of stats and see how many times the time that was superior in that stat won each series. Then, it assigned “weight points” to each category; the more often the team winning the category won the series, the greater the number of points given to the team that was ahead in that category. After all categories were compared, the team with the higher number of total points was predicted by the system to win that playoff or World Series. Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus updated the system in 2017 for all postseason series through 2016, and in addition to re-weighting the points of categories a fair bit, he broke it down further, creating separate point systems for Division Series, Championship Series and World Series. Through 2016, the system worked (in hindsight) for 69% of Division Series, 63% of League Championship Series and 73% of World Series. Basically, the system works about two-thirds of the time. For the Royals-Yanks Division Series, this is what the system says:
1. Give 7 pts to the team that scored fewer runs during the season (yes, FEWER). The Yanks lead the AL in runs, so the 7 points go to the Royals, so 7-0, KC.
2. Give 10 pts to the team with fewer doubles. The Royals beat the Yanks in doubles this year, 264 to 243, so 10 points to the Yanks; 10-7, NY.
3. Give 15 pts to the team with fewer triples, and again, the Royals beat the Yanks, 35 to 15 (being slow and unathletic works; thank you Stanton!), 15 pts to the Yanks; 25-7, NY.
4. Give 4 pts to the team with more home runs, and the Yanks lead all of MLB with 237 HR (The Orioles had 235, the Dodgers, 233), so 4 more pts to the Yanks; 29-7, NY.
5. Give 12 pts to the team that drew fewer walks, and the Yanks led all of MLB with 672 (70 more than the Dodgers, who were 2nd), so 12 pts to the Royals; 29-19, NY.
6. Give 17 pts to the team whose batters struck out less, and although the Yanks struck out fewer times than the AL league average, the Royals had the fewest batter strikeouts in the AL. So, 17 more pts to the Royals; 36-29 KC.
7. Give 4 pts to the team with the higher OBA, and that’s the Yankees; 36-33 KC.
8. Give 4 pts to the team with the higher slugging percentage, and that’s the Yanks again, 37-36, NY.
9. Give 8 pts to the team that made fewer errors, and that’s the Royals; 44-37, KC.
10. Now the biggie: give 27 points to the team whose pitchers threw the most shutouts. Despite having both Lugo and Ragans on their staff, the Royals weak pen for most of the season kept them from completing as many team shutouts. Yanks win the category, 14-11, and the total is now 64-44, NY.
11. Give 8 pts to the team whose pitchers had more K’s. Again; it’s the Yanks, whose staff had the 4th most K’s in MLB and 3rd in the AL, 72-44, NY.
12. Give 12 pts to the team with the lower ERA, and by a mere 0.02 runs, it’s the Yanks again; 84-44, NY.
13. Give 12 pts to the team with the most recent post-season experience. Neither team made the playoffs in 2023, but in 2022, the Royals were 30 games under .500 and the Yanks lost the Astros in the ALCS. Final score: NY 96, Royals 44.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 4, 2024 22:45:32 GMT -5
Part III - The Royals’ pitching
Is this one of the 3 in 10 Division Series the Prediction System won’t work in? I don’t know, but if it does work, it won’t be as lopsided at the prediction score. So much of the Yankees lead is based on superior pitching, especially starting pitching, and I don’t really see where the Yanks have an advantage in starting pitching in this series. The staff shutout numbers, which is a driver of the Yankee 48-pt “win” under the system is contraindicated by the fact that the top of the Royals rotation appears to be stronger than the Yankees rotation. The Royals’ weaknesses in middle relief won’t be much of a factor because the multiple days off allow them to concentrate their good relievers into whatever innings they don’t get from their top 3 starters. The Royals have 2 legit candidates for significant Cy Young vote support, the Yanks have none, really.
In looking at how this series should play out, rather than what happened in the head-to-head before, it is easy to see a scenario where the Royals top 3 starters, Ragans, Lugo and Wacha, dominate the Yanks lineup for 6-7 innings every game, allowing them to portion out somewhere between 7 and 15 innings over 3 to 5 games, with days off after games 2, 3 and 4, to their 5 best relievers: Schreiber, Zerba, Lang, Bubic and the man who has come in and settled their poor closer situation down very nicely, Erceg. They have not one, but three long men for the first three games of the series, all of whom are serviceable: #4 and #5 starters Lorenzen and Singer, and Lynch as well. For game 5, they’ll have Lugo available on three days’ rest if the Yanks actually manage to get Wacha in trouble. Or they can start Lugo on three days’ rest, with Wacha in reserve if Lugo stumbles.
Looking at what their top relievers have done lately:
Schreiber is 1-0 in the second half with 5 holds and a save in 20 games: 17 1/3 innings, 9 hits, 4 runs (earned), 0 HR, 7 BB and 19 K, with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP under 1.00. He's pitched very well against the Yanks for the Red Sox in recent seasons, too.
Zerba, 6th-7th inning guys, throws 95-7 with a slider, change and occasional curve. He had back-to-back terrible games in early August, allowing 6 runs. Since then, in 12 games: 12 1/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs (earned), 1 HR, 6 BB and 11 K’s, with 1 win and 2 holds; ERA 1.45 and WHIP 1.054.
If the Yanks load the lineup with lefties against Lugo and Wacha, they can expect to see Sam Long in multiple games. Long has struggled a bit down the stretch. In his last 14 games, he’s 1-2 with 2 holds, 14 2/3 innings, 11 hits, 7 runs (earned), 3 HR, 4 BB and 14 K; ERA 4.30 and WHIP 1.023. He faced the Yanks twice in September, and they didn’t do much with him, 1 hit, 2 BB and 2 K in 2 1/3 innings, and no runs.
Bubic has evolved into the Royals’ main set up man down the stretch. Since late August, he’s pitched 15 innings in 14 games, going 1-1 with 1 save, 1 blown save and 4 holds. He’s allowed 12 hits, 5 runs (3 earned), 1 HR and just 2 BB and 19 K’s. His ERA in this stretch is 1.80, and the WHIP is 0.933. Even though he throws just 93-5, he has an excellent slider to use against lefties and an outstanding change to baffle righties. I’d expect to see him against Soto in the late innings in any situation they can’t just walk Soto and go after Judge with a righty. Soto’s faced him just once, in the series just past, and he’s 0-1.
And the closer is a hard throwing righty, Lucas Erceg. Erceg is 98-99 with both FB and sinker, and has a change. The sinker and slider both have extreme high run values per pitch; the change is something he can show lefties to get them off his harder stuff; over 90% of his changeups this season were to lefties. Erceg went through a 3-game rough patch in late-August and early September where he gave up 7 earned runs over 2 innings in the 3 games. In spite of that, in 23 games since joining the Royals, he’s been nails: 0-3, 11 saves. 2 blown saves, both in that bad 3 games, 6 holds, 25 innings, 18 hits, 9 runs, 8 earned (that means just 1 ER in the other 20 games and 21 innings), 0 HR, 3 BB, and 31 K. His ERA since joining KC is 2.88, and his WHIP is 0.84. Whether he can do it in the post-season against top lineups…well, here’s a possible clue: the Giants swept the Royals in KC during that last 10 days and put them on the brink of falling out of the playoffs, but in the following series against the Nats, Erceg closed out all three games, pitching a 1-2-3 9th inning in each, striking out 4, saving all three games, and using just 12, 12, and 11 pitches. He won’t have to work like that in this series, which has no more than 2 games in a row at any point.
What the Yanks have to do, first and foremost, is not let the Royals dominate with their starting pitching, as the Astros did two years ago in the 2022 ALCS. That way, the Yanks' power can win the game in the mid-to-late innings, which I think they'll have to do once or twice.
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