|
|
Post by yankeesfaninboston on Nov 15, 2024 16:22:33 GMT -5
The predictions for his 2025 are basically the same as what he's done the past 3 seasons where he has been remarkably consistent. 30+ home runs, 100+ RBI, elite defense. He's not going to be asked to play positions that older guys have problems with, like 2b/3b like DJLM was. He's a 1b only. DJLM's body has broken down kind of like Ellsbury's did. Using him as a red flag would mean no team should ever sign a guy over 34 years old. We should have let Judge walk and should be out in the Soto sweepstakes as well because they will both need to be signed in to their late 30s. Look at Carlos Santana instead of DJLM. He's been consistent year-in and year-out at 1b and he's now 39. Does he mean that we should not worry at all and sign guys until they're 40+? The oblique injury isn't ideal, but missing one month in 3 years isn't a huge red flag to me. I don't think they have anything on Walker that shows he may drop off of a cliff other than comparing him to DJLM. He's not DJLM. Use Santana instead and I guess we should give Walker 4-5 years? I don't think either position is really fair. Walker is Walker, not some other player. For a 2-3 year deal I would go for it. For me, the author eluded to him having trouble catching up to the fastball, that combined with him probably getting at least a three year deal is a concern. I guess I've just seen this movie too many times before. I agree with what Stu posted in rebuttal but I also agree with your response here. The oblique injury seems like a blip and while signing older guys is never ideal I don't view those as "red flags" with Walker necessarily. He's obviously not a perfect player which is why we're talking about him on a much smaller deal than some of the other options, mostly in terms of years but also salary. If he can't catch up to fastballs though, that's a huge red flag. I guess my question would be to break down the data further. The article mentioned he had an oblique injury. Was it a case of coming back and struggling because of that? I'm looking at his game logs page... www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=walkech02&t=b&year=2024Through 7/29 when he got hurt he was slashing .254/.338//476 in 461 plate appearances with 114 strikeouts (24.7 SO%). After his return on Sept 3rd through the end of the year he slashed .231/.319/.423 in 91 plate appearances with 19 strikeouts (20.8 SO%). Specifically though, in his first 5 games back from injury he slashed .200/.294/.267 with 5 strikeouts in 17 plate appearances. The overall season numbers vs. fastballs are troubling and the numbers don't seem to say it was an injury recovery thing. He was striking out at an elevated rate before the injury. I'd just want the scouts/analytics to break it down further. But it's definitely a red flag to look into for sure. |
|
|
|
Post by yankeesfaninboston on Nov 15, 2024 16:30:18 GMT -5
Just some general thoughts on guys you mentioned... I'm with you on Bellinger. I really liked him as a fit here. I had read some offseason speculation that if Bellinger opted out that CHI would have used it as an opportunity to pursue Alonso for more offensive punch. I'll throw it out there as an idea, if CHI still would rather spend Bellinger's money on Alonso, that maybe they'd be open to a trade? Just a random idea, probably not realistic. On Santander, I'll throw it out there that BAL did use him a bit at 1B the past few years and apparently he looked OK there. We're talking 13 total games, so no huge conclusions to be drawn. I hate to keep doing this where we add guys and play them at positions they aren't used to, but I like him a little more if he can be a passable 1B vs. a bad RF that forces us to keep playing Judge in CF where he isn't very good and then deal with Dominguez likely being a negative LF as well. If we did sign Santander, my guess would be that in 3 years when Stanton's deal is up we'd be looking to play Dominguez in the less-challenging RF spot (assuming he's panned out offensively, but the iffy defensive scouting reports translate too) and then have one of Judge/Santander move to 1B with the other slotting in at DH. If they thought he could make the switch to 1B now, I'd be more on board for him. But then again, I'm tired of moving guys around like I said before. You seem very interested in adding a co-ace alongside Cole and can't say I blame you. You mentioned trading Stroman and Cortes. I imagine Cortes has positive value on his projected $8.3M salary. Stroman, I imagine we'd need to attach some prospects if we wanted a team to take the money. Maybe it could all net out there prospect wise where it's not an organizational hit. If you sent both of them out, that's almost $27M saved. You signed Burnes in your plan and took that money out of what was available to spend on offense, but maybe they can open that money back up by sending Stroman/Cortes out to make room instead. You'd still have a 5-man rotation of Cole/Burnes/Rodon/Gil/Schmidt so even though it's two arms out for one guy in, it's still a good 5-man rotation. And now that money can be put back towards a bat. Adames has expressed willingness to move positions, so that could definitely be in play. He's a bit like Hernandez where he's just not my favorite kind of hitter (strikeouts, inconsistent OBP) but mostly I'm just not sure I want to be tied to him for as long a contract as I think he'll sign (I've read 7 or 8 years). If the Yankees got Teoscar he'd be a Soto replacement in RF. Might not be feasible though since reportedly he's looking to sign sooner rather than later after being left hanging on the market last year, which would take him out of play before we know what happens with Soto. I like him better in RF than Santander because his hitting profile is more balanced, I expect he'll sign a shorter deal which means Judge can move off of CF easier in a few years, and defenisvely he actually grades out ok in RF which is his natural spot (LF less so, which is where LAD played him). The only downside is that he hits right handed and we definitely could use at least one of Soto's or Rizzo's replacements to bat from the left side for the balance. So it kind of makes 1B tougher to fill since we'd be wanting to prioritize a lefty there. I'd be very, very surprised if Walker got more than 3 years. The history of RH hitting 1B deals isn't good even for guys younger than him. I'm actually expecting it to come down to a 2 yar deal for a higher AAV vs. 3 years at a lower AAV. I could be wrong, but think 3 years is the absolute limit for him. FWIW, Belinger’s CF metrics were similar to Judges last year. He’s still a 1B… Yeah I should clarify my Judge in CF stance. He's not so bad right now that I can't live with it, but it's definitely not ideal. My bigger concern is the long term. I'm actually pretty ok with Judge playing CF this year because I don't really see an alternative. If Soto is back, then it has to happen (maybe he goes to LF with Dominguez in CF but not much of a difference with Yankees Stadium IMO). If Soto isn't back, then they desperately need some replacement offense and that isn't easy to accommodate if you move Judge off of CF because now you're shopping from the wasteland that is this year's CF market. It's hard to find a competent replacement for Soto's bat in a COF spot but that guy flat out doesn't exisit in the CF market that I see out there. If we acquired Bellinger as a Soto replacement, I'd still be looking to EVENTUALLY move him to 1B which he can play. But in the short term, even if it's not a defensive improvement, it'd still be nice to get Judge off CF back into RF even if just for preserving his longevity. That's something that Bellinger would bring that none of the free agent Soto replacements bring. I'd go with a shorter term stop gap at 1B (Carlos Santana?) in that case with the idea of eventually finding a CF to push Bellinger back to 1B where he's ideal. Part of what I mentioned with Santander possibly being a 1B conversion candidate as well in that post. Same kind of logic, except he wouldn't get Judge out of CF in even the short term like Bellinger could if we traded for him. |
|
stu
AA
Posts: 82
|
Post by stu on Nov 15, 2024 17:11:48 GMT -5
The predictions for his 2025 are basically the same as what he's done the past 3 seasons where he has been remarkably consistent. 30+ home runs, 100+ RBI, elite defense. He's not going to be asked to play positions that older guys have problems with, like 2b/3b like DJLM was. He's a 1b only. DJLM's body has broken down kind of like Ellsbury's did. Using him as a red flag would mean no team should ever sign a guy over 34 years old. We should have let Judge walk and should be out in the Soto sweepstakes as well because they will both need to be signed in to their late 30s. Look at Carlos Santana instead of DJLM. He's been consistent year-in and year-out at 1b and he's now 39. Does he mean that we should not worry at all and sign guys until they're 40+? The oblique injury isn't ideal, but missing one month in 3 years isn't a huge red flag to me. I don't think they have anything on Walker that shows he may drop off of a cliff other than comparing him to DJLM. He's not DJLM. Use Santana instead and I guess we should give Walker 4-5 years? I don't think either position is really fair. Walker is Walker, not some other player. For a 2-3 year deal I would go for it. I recall Jose Abreu making all the same points. I understand the concern. Abreu was 36 when he signed with Houston, and his demise couldn't have happened to a nicer team. 2-3 years isn't a long commitment if he does age like DJLM. I think he'll be fine because he has low mileage on his odometer, or I think that enough to be willing to take a chance on him. And I don't see where they are saying he's losing his ability to hit a fastball as another poster said. They're really just saying there are two red flags. The oblique injury, which isn't great. But missing 4 weeks in 3 years makes me not too concerned about it. The other is age, and they just go from "he's 33" to "he could be another DJLM" with really nothing to back it up. He could also be another Carlos Santana and produce consistently through age 39. |
|
stu
AA
Posts: 82
|
Post by stu on Nov 15, 2024 17:24:11 GMT -5
For me, the author eluded to him having trouble catching up to the fastball, that combined with him probably getting at least a three year deal is a concern. I guess I've just seen this movie too many times before. I agree with what Stu posted in rebuttal but I also agree with your response here. The oblique injury seems like a blip and while signing older guys is never ideal I don't view those as "red flags" with Walker necessarily. He's obviously not a perfect player which is why we're talking about him on a much smaller deal than some of the other options, mostly in terms of years but also salary. If he can't catch up to fastballs though, that's a huge red flag. I guess my question would be to break down the data further. The article mentioned he had an oblique injury. Was it a case of coming back and struggling because of that? I'm looking at his game logs page... www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=walkech02&t=b&year=2024Through 7/29 when he got hurt he was slashing .254/.338//476 in 461 plate appearances with 114 strikeouts (24.7 SO%). After his return on Sept 3rd through the end of the year he slashed .231/.319/.423 in 91 plate appearances with 19 strikeouts (20.8 SO%). Specifically though, in his first 5 games back from injury he slashed .200/.294/.267 with 5 strikeouts in 17 plate appearances. The overall season numbers vs. fastballs are troubling and the numbers don't seem to say it was an injury recovery thing. He was striking out at an elevated rate before the injury. I'd just want the scouts/analytics to break it down further. But it's definitely a red flag to look into for sure. His expected numbers against fastballs in 2024 were actually better than his 2023. Higher expected batting average, slugging and wOBA. His hard hit rate was 51.9% against fastballs against a 43.3% mark from a year ago. So I think he hit in to some bad luck. (getting all this from his savant page). And while the article doesn't show metrics to back it up, yes he did strike out more against fastballs in 2024. But not without a lot of other positives which I just mentioned. Missed some more, hit the ball harder overall though. |
|
|
|
Post by fwclipper51 on Nov 15, 2024 18:01:17 GMT -5
Yankees could upgrade bullpen with trade for this former closer
Published: Nov. 15, 2024, 6:00 a.m.
Giants Reliever Camilo Doval is reportedly drawing trade interest this winter. The Yankees need to add a high-leverage arm or two to the back of their bullpen as the likes of Clay Holmes, Tim Hill and Tommy Kahnle hit free agency
By Max Goodman | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Other than closer Luke Weaver, the back of the Yankees’ bullpen could look completely different next season.
Every other high-leverage reliever that Yankees Manager Aaron Boone leaned on most in the postseason is now a MLB free agent this winter.
Former closer Clay Holmes will be seeking a multi-year deal, left-hander Tim Hill has earned guaranteed money after his impressive 2nd half in pinstripes and veteran Tommy Kahnle quietly had a tremendous year in 2024.
Each of those pitchers has shown interest in a reunion, but the Yankees have demonstrated a willingness and an ability in recent years to find and utilize cost-effective alternatives, turning scraps from the bargain bin into late-inning weapons with help of their elite pitching department.
After all, that’s what they did with Weaver, Holmes and Hill. Jake Cousins and Ian Hamilton fit the same description and they’ll be back in 2025.
One way the Yankees can strengthen the back of their ‘pen this winter — while devoting most of their offseason budget into signing Juan Soto and others — is via trade.
It’s certainly possible they’ll invest in a top-tier reliever this winter. They could go after a closer like Tanner Scott or Carlos Esteves. That caliber of reliever won’t be cheap. The same goes for the best on the trade market, like Cardinals Closer Ryan Helsley and Brewers Closer Devin Williams. It’ll take impactful prospects to make those kinds of acquisitions possible.
When it comes to saving — and in this case, on prospect capital — the solution could be in San Francisco.
Giants right-hander Camilo Doval is drawing trade interest this winter. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier this month that a few teams are in on the hard-throwing righty. Some are even considering him for the closer role, a spot he lost during a season to forget with the Giants.
Doval, who was tied for the most saves in the National League (39) in 2023, had a 4.88 ERA in 2024. The same reliever who had a 2.77 ERA over his 1st 3 years with the Giants was demoted by San Francisco over the summer, an attempt to get the right-hander back on track.
With his down year in mind, Doval’s value as a trade piece has dropped. In that sense, the Giants could wait to see if the righty turns it around next spring. At that point, they can either bump him back into an important late-inning role as they look to contend in a challenging division or capitalize on that surge to get more back in a trade deadline deal. But if he’s truly available this winter and the Giants are ready to move on, many teams will be interested. The arm talent is undeniable, he has 3 years of arbitration remaining and for the Yankees, he fits the mold of pitchers they have a tendency of targeting.
Doval’s pitch mix features a slider, a triple-digit cutter and sinker. His ability to keep the ball on the ground is as elite as it gets. He was in the 98th percentile with a 60.5 ground-ball rate in 2024. Doval is ranked 4th among all pitchers who have thrown 200-plus innings since the beginning of the 2021 season with a GB rate of 55.2 percent — Holmes and Hill are ranked No. 1 and 2 respectively on that leaderboard.
While his control and the quality of contact against him from this past season are huge red flags, the electricity of his stuff can give the Yankees a true strikeout weapon, something they’ve been lacking in recent years.
You have to figure Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake and his team would love to get their hands on a pitcher like Doval. Maybe a change of scenery and a few tweaks from a team with a track record of bringing the best out of all kinds of arms would be enough to get Doval back to his pre-2024 form.
Either way, whether it’s Doval or someone else, the Yankees must be sure to acquire another high-leverage reliever to join Weaver this winter. A left-handed reliever would be a good get as well. Unless Hill returns for next season, the only left-handed reliever on the Yankees’ MLB roster right now is Tim Mayza.
|
|
|
|
Post by yankeemike on Nov 15, 2024 18:27:35 GMT -5
Yankees could upgrade bullpen with trade for this former closerPublished: Nov. 15, 2024, 6:00 a.m. Giants Reliever Camilo Doval is reportedly drawing trade interest this winter. The Yankees need to add a high-leverage arm or two to the back of their bullpen as the likes of Clay Holmes, Tim Hill and Tommy Kahnle hit free agency
By Max Goodman | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com Other than closer Luke Weaver, the back of the Yankees’ bullpen could look completely different next season. Every other high-leverage reliever that Yankees Manager Aaron Boone leaned on most in the postseason is now a MLB free agent this winter. Former closer Clay Holmes will be seeking a multi-year deal, left-hander Tim Hill has earned guaranteed money after his impressive 2nd half in pinstripes and veteran Tommy Kahnle quietly had a tremendous year in 2024. Each of those pitchers has shown interest in a reunion, but the Yankees have demonstrated a willingness and an ability in recent years to find and utilize cost-effective alternatives, turning scraps from the bargain bin into late-inning weapons with help of their elite pitching department. After all, that’s what they did with Weaver, Holmes and Hill. Jake Cousins and Ian Hamilton fit the same description and they’ll be back in 2025. One way the Yankees can strengthen the back of their ‘pen this winter — while devoting most of their offseason budget into signing Juan Soto and others — is via trade. It’s certainly possible they’ll invest in a top-tier reliever this winter. They could go after a closer like Tanner Scott or Carlos Esteves. That caliber of reliever won’t be cheap. The same goes for the best on the trade market, like Cardinals Closer Ryan Helsley and Brewers Closer Devin Williams. It’ll take impactful prospects to make those kinds of acquisitions possible. When it comes to saving — and in this case, on prospect capital — the solution could be in San Francisco. Giants right-hander Camilo Doval is drawing trade interest this winter. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier this month that a few teams are in on the hard-throwing righty. Some are even considering him for the closer role, a spot he lost during a season to forget with the Giants. Doval, who was tied for the most saves in the National League (39) in 2023, had a 4.88 ERA in 2024. The same reliever who had a 2.77 ERA over his 1st 3 years with the Giants was demoted by San Francisco over the summer, an attempt to get the right-hander back on track. With his down year in mind, Doval’s value as a trade piece has dropped. In that sense, the Giants could wait to see if the righty turns it around next spring. At that point, they can either bump him back into an important late-inning role as they look to contend in a challenging division or capitalize on that surge to get more back in a trade deadline deal. But if he’s truly available this winter and the Giants are ready to move on, many teams will be interested. The arm talent is undeniable, he has 3 years of arbitration remaining and for the Yankees, he fits the mold of pitchers they have a tendency of targeting. Doval’s pitch mix features a slider, a triple-digit cutter and sinker. His ability to keep the ball on the ground is as elite as it gets. He was in the 98th percentile with a 60.5 ground-ball rate in 2024. Doval is ranked 4th among all pitchers who have thrown 200-plus innings since the beginning of the 2021 season with a GB rate of 55.2 percent — Holmes and Hill are ranked No. 1 and 2 respectively on that leaderboard. While his control and the quality of contact against him from this past season are huge red flags, the electricity of his stuff can give the Yankees a true strikeout weapon, something they’ve been lacking in recent years. You have to figure Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake and his team would love to get their hands on a pitcher like Doval. Maybe a change of scenery and a few tweaks from a team with a track record of bringing the best out of all kinds of arms would be enough to get Doval back to his pre-2024 form. Either way, whether it’s Doval or someone else, the Yankees must be sure to acquire another high-leverage reliever to join Weaver this winter. A left-handed reliever would be a good get as well. Unless Hill returns for next season, the only left-handed reliever on the Yankees’ MLB roster right now is Tim Mayza. Enough of the reclamation projects with these relief pitchers! Go sign Tanner Scott and be done with it. |
|
|
|
Post by ypaterson on Nov 15, 2024 18:48:07 GMT -5
I recall Jose Abreu making all the same points. I understand the concern. Abreu was 36 when he signed with Houston, and his demise couldn't have happened to a nicer team. 2-3 years isn't a long commitment if he does age like DJLM. I think he'll be fine because he has low mileage on his odometer, or I think that enough to be willing to take a chance on him. And I don't see where they are saying he's losing his ability to hit a fastball as another poster said. They're really just saying there are two red flags. The oblique injury, which isn't great. But missing 4 weeks in 3 years makes me not too concerned about it. The other is age, and they just go from "he's 33" to "he could be another DJLM" with really nothing to back it up. He could also be another Carlos Santana and produce consistently through age 39. How about just signing Santana for 1 year at a $ 5 M raise... $18 M ? |
|
stu
AA
Posts: 82
|
Post by stu on Nov 15, 2024 19:45:54 GMT -5
Abreu was 36 when he signed with Houston, and his demise couldn't have happened to a nicer team. 2-3 years isn't a long commitment if he does age like DJLM. I think he'll be fine because he has low mileage on his odometer, or I think that enough to be willing to take a chance on him. And I don't see where they are saying he's losing his ability to hit a fastball as another poster said. They're really just saying there are two red flags. The oblique injury, which isn't great. But missing 4 weeks in 3 years makes me not too concerned about it. The other is age, and they just go from "he's 33" to "he could be another DJLM" with really nothing to back it up. He could also be another Carlos Santana and produce consistently through age 39. How about just signing Santana for 1 year at a $ 5 M raise... $18 M ? Looks like he only made 5.25 million last year, so I would hope you could get him for 10 million or less. He's the most likely to actually fall off of a cliff though due to age. As a Plan B type he's not out of the question. If Walker goes elsewhere we will probably start to see him pop up in rumors. |
|
|
|
Post by 1955nyyfan on Nov 16, 2024 13:39:07 GMT -5
|
|
stu
AA
Posts: 82
|
Post by stu on Nov 16, 2024 14:12:02 GMT -5
I'd do that in a nanosecond. I actually like Hoerner more than Bellinger. That would give the Yankees a strong 2b, and Bellinger could either play in the OF or at 1b depending on how the rest of the offseason were to play out. Plus Stroman is gone? Sign me up. They would need to add a couple of depth SP if they were to lose Stro and Warren but it would be worth it. I don't know that the Cubs would be willing / if they value Spencer Jones that much. |
|
|
|
Post by Max on Nov 16, 2024 14:25:01 GMT -5
Unless Hoerner and Bellinger are going to play for less money than their contracts state, I'm not sure how that trade frees up money for the Yankees.
|
|
|
|
Post by 1955nyyfan on Nov 16, 2024 15:04:12 GMT -5
Unless Hoerner and Bellinger are going to play for less money than their contracts state, I'm not sure how that trade frees up money for the Yankees. I think the author's point was the money from Stroman could be reallocated to address more pressing needs. If my math is correct, this deal would allow us to acquire a quality second baseman and a potential everyday 1b or outfielder for about $18mm net. Where I disagree with the author is he seems to think it is a high price for the Yankees to pay. I guess I've soured enough on Jones that I am in the camp that it wouldn't be enough especially considering the fact I am also so down on Stroman. |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Nov 16, 2024 15:47:33 GMT -5
It seems every season there’s talk of bringing Bellinger aboard…
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Nov 16, 2024 15:49:49 GMT -5
Unless Hoerner and Bellinger are going to play for less money than their contracts state, I'm not sure how that trade frees up money for the Yankees. I think the author's point was the money from Stroman could be reallocated to address more pressing needs. If my math is correct, this deal would allow us to acquire a quality second baseman and a potential everyday 1b or outfielder for about $18mm net. Where I disagree with the author is he seems to think it is a high price for the Yankees to pay. I guess I've soured enough on Jones that I am in the camp that it wouldn't be enough especially considering the fact I am also so down on Stroman. The shine has come off Jones…last yearwas a big setback by virtue of no progress… |
|
|
|
Post by chiyankee on Nov 16, 2024 16:07:52 GMT -5
But the Cubs wouldn't. They already had Stroman and they know he's only good for a half season, plus they have a good rotation and don't need him. |
|
