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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2019 7:50:57 GMT -5
I guess I don’t find that relevant.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2019 8:05:00 GMT -5
So LeMahieu is Jeteresque. Well I guess that changes everything. Meanwhile, back to the real world, DJ (since you want him to be Jeter)has an fWAR of 2, Machado’s fWAR is 6.2... DJ’s wRC+ is 86, Machado’s wRC+ is141.
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Post by inger on Jan 15, 2019 10:31:13 GMT -5
Lol.. inger, you have got to get out more. I guess you’re one of those guys that think Asia is a place where people sit huddled around a rice bowl in a room filled with old Singer sewing machines with loudspeakers belting out Mao Tse Tung sayings. Haha...Actually, the Singapore reference was made with full doubt there is a sweatshop anywhere, but was strictly in "honor" of you...Everyone knows that most sweatshops are now composed of people that have been illegally trafficked into Florida and locked in metal buildings... (: |
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Post by inger on Jan 15, 2019 10:36:16 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/dj-lemahieu-is-going-to-look-familiar/“At FanGraphs, we have batted-ball data stretching back to 2002. So now I’m going to compare recent LeMahieu to hitters from the past 17 years. You ready? Since 2002, there have been 854 batters who’ve come to the plate at least 1,000 times. LeMahieu is a right-handed hitter. Narrowing to right-handed hitters drops that pool from 854 batters to 488. LeMahieu has walked in 8.5% of his plate appearances. It wouldn’t be fair to just set a cutoff at 8.5%. Let’s use 7.5%. Roughly league average. Narrowing to walk rates of at least 7.5% drops that pool from 488 batters to 245. LeMahieu is a contact hitter, striking out in 13.3% of his plate appearances. This time, let’s draw the line at 15%. I know that strikeout rates have been on the rise, but I don’t want to overcomplicate things. Narrowing to strikeout rates of at most 15% drops that pool from 245 batters to 62. LeMahieu also happens to be a ground-ball hitter, putting the ball on the ground 52.1% of the time. Some see a ground-ball profile; others see a line-drive profile. This cutoff is going to be 50%. Narrowing to ground-ball rates of at least 50% drops that pool from 62 batters to ten. What’s one of the other most distinctive things about LeMahieu at the plate? He likes to go the other way. LeMahieu has hit 35.4% of his batted balls to the opposite field. Let’s just use a nice, round cutoff of 30%. Narrowing to opposite-field rates of at least 30% drops that pool from ten batters to four. And, finally, LeMahieu does have a little bit of pop. When he’s hit a fly ball, it’s gone for a homer 9.8% of the time. You know that number as HR/FB%. This time, it doesn’t matter if we draw the line at 9%, or 8%, or 7%, or 6%, or 5%. Narrowing to HR/FB rates of at least any of those numbers drops that pool from four batters to one. That one batter is Derek Jeter. This is Jeter from 2002 – 2014, over more than 8,000 trips to the plate. This is Jeter from between the ages of 28 and 40. Jeter was a very good player, also, between the ages of 22 and 27. But the profile was always a similar one. Jeter was a contact hitter who drew his share of walks. He hit from the right side and put a hell of a lot of balls on the ground, but he’d also pepper right and right-center with sharp grounders and line drives. From time to time, a ball would clear the right-field porch. From time to time, Jeter would turn on a pitch inside. It was a slightly different era back then, and Jeter didn’t face as many hard-throwers as LeMahieu does, but that’s the style. As a Yankee, LeMahieu is likely to look like Jeter did.“ 
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Post by NewYawka on Jan 15, 2019 14:47:52 GMT -5
Newyawka said: 8 hours ago NewYawka said: The Yanks did their due diligence and, I'm sure, if Machado were willing to sign a 4 year deal, they would have jumped at it. But he is waiting it out for his 10-year deal. Those are the deals fans love in the first few and kill the GM in the later years. I don't blame Cashman for not wanting to take on yet another major contract for a guy who may end up being only a small upgrade over their current young 3B. --------------------------- Nobody should seriously think that a player like Machado would take a 4 year deal at age 26, who has put up the numbers on both sides of the ball that he has. You offer him 4, but offer a fringe dude like LaMahieu 2 that takes him to age 31, but Machado would only be 30? Straight up a cheapskate move that doesn't move the needle at all. How many 10-year $350-$400 million contracts should the Yanks plan to have at one time? They already have Stanton. Judge is going to command a huge raise soon enough. Then you will have Severino...and Torres... Teams are starting to realize you can't sign these long term megadeals anymore. Maybe you can have one of them on your team, but at some point it hampers any future moves. Machado for 4 years, $120M (40 per)? Definitely. Machado for 7 years, $265M (37M+ per)? Maybe. Machado for 10 years, $350M+ (35M per)? Probably not worth it at a position that is not really a need. The comparison is not Machado vs. LeMahieu. Machado is a 3B...he is not the long term SS here. It was Machado vs. Andujar vs. opportunity cost. And it seems, to the Yanks, Machado does not move the needle when replacing Andujar. |
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Post by inger on Jan 15, 2019 15:47:47 GMT -5
Newyawka said: 8 hours ago NewYawka said: The Yanks did their due diligence and, I'm sure, if Machado were willing to sign a 4 year deal, they would have jumped at it. But he is waiting it out for his 10-year deal. Those are the deals fans love in the first few and kill the GM in the later years. I don't blame Cashman for not wanting to take on yet another major contract for a guy who may end up being only a small upgrade over their current young 3B. --------------------------- Nobody should seriously think that a player like Machado would take a 4 year deal at age 26, who has put up the numbers on both sides of the ball that he has. You offer him 4, but offer a fringe dude like LaMahieu 2 that takes him to age 31, but Machado would only be 30? Straight up a cheapskate move that doesn't move the needle at all. How many 10-year $350-$400 million contracts should the Yanks plan to have at one time? They already have Stanton. Judge is going to command a huge raise soon enough. Then you will have Severino...and Torres... Teams are starting to realize you can't sign these long term megadeals anymore. Maybe you can have one of them on your team, but at some point it hampers any future moves. Machado for 4 years, $120M (40 per)? Definitely. Machado for 7 years, $265M (37M+ per)? Maybe. Machado for 10 years, $350M+ (35M per)? Probably not worth it at a position that is not really a need. The comparison is not Machado vs. LeMahieu. Machado is a 3B...he is not the long term SS here. It was Machado vs. Andujar vs. opportunity cost. And it seems, to the Yanks, Machado does not move the needle when replacing Andujar. Minor point/Math Check: Machado at four years at $40M per wouod be $160M, not 120M, but I get your point and agree. The one objection I have to your charted contract options is that you offered no suggestions for 3, 5, or 6 years. And I would likely stop at 5, actually. Even then, I’m not so sure I would even make an offer to Machado...But my point is that there are shorter options than the 7 and 10 year options. Some might call what’s going on collusion, but I think it’s actually education. Teams are learning that the long term mega-bucks deals often hurt them in long run, and some like the Ellsbury deal even hurt in the short run... |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2019 16:27:38 GMT -5
I don’t recall saying anything about signing Machado for 10 years. I’ve alwsys talked in terms of 6-8, but feel free to speculate. That’s what the forum is for, right?
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Post by goodyear on Jan 15, 2019 20:22:31 GMT -5
Chicago is going to give him 8 most likely. I don't see how this is fiscally responsible. As Inger pointed out this insures the players future at the expense of the team viability. He throws a shoe in year three and then what?
Be that as it may I finding it comical trying to justify the DJ signing. It doesn't make sense today and it will make even less sense as the year unfolds. Is he a bench player? He's always been a starter. If he's a bench player how does that effect his ability both defensively and offensively. At this point their best option is Anduhar 3b, Tulo ss Torres 2nd. Does it make sense to turn Andujar into a DH. At this point in his career he needs to play. He won't get any better watching from the bench. Do you sit Tulo and slide Torres over to SS. Considering how Torres played D last year I would find that hard to believe. He needs as much time developing defensively as Andujar and 2b seems to be a better option for him right now. Of course I'm assuming Tulo is able to stand up. I don't think they would have taken a flier on him if they didn't believe he could play. So in my mind this leaves Dj as the bench player. Frankly I think giving the kids a hot rather than throw away 23M we could have used to bolster the pitching.
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Post by noetsi on Jan 15, 2019 21:02:18 GMT -5
Given that I always have opposed 10 year deals for anyone....
They can work out for a few years, but then you end up as we did with a large number of older players you are paying fortunes too who can't hit (Tex and Arod late in their career come to mind).
I think we should develop and sign our own players and stay out of the free agency market.
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Post by noetsi on Jan 15, 2019 21:07:09 GMT -5
You should throw out extreme numbers because this makes sense not because they are extreme. It makes sense to throw out numbers early in a career, people learn how to hit in the majors, and when they are injured (unless you think the injury will continue). Throwing out a good year just because it was a good year, again unless you have reason to believe it can't occur again, does not make much sense. I have heard that hitting is better in Coors not because of its altitude, but because they made the park bigger to lessen home runs and its hard to cover all of it relative to smaller parks. I have no idea if that is true  Russ, if you have no idea if that is true, why would you post it? Truth be known, it IS true...The thin air makes fly balls travel so much farther that still a goodly number of them leave the park, but the biggest advantage hitters have is that singles fall like rain and many of those find the huge gaps and turn into extra base hits. I think it was just yesterday when I posted this information. Don’t tell me you don’t read my posts, I’ll be heartbroken. If you tell me you read them, but forget them, I’ll understand... 🤪 I follow the academic tendency to speculate based on incomplete or non-existent facts. Its called theories and forms the basis of most research
I do read your articles inger. I miss details.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2019 21:09:59 GMT -5
So, they give $12 million per year for a bench player, but won't even offer Machado any deal....
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Post by inger on Jan 15, 2019 21:22:27 GMT -5
Russ, if you have no idea if that is true, why would you post it? Truth be known, it IS true...The thin air makes fly balls travel so much farther that still a goodly number of them leave the park, but the biggest advantage hitters have is that singles fall like rain and many of those find the huge gaps and turn into extra base hits. I think it was just yesterday when I posted this information. Don’t tell me you don’t read my posts, I’ll be heartbroken. If you tell me you read them, but forget them, I’ll understand... 🤪 I follow the academic tendency to speculate based on incomplete or non-existent facts. Its called theories and forms the basis of most research
I do read your articles inger. I miss details.
I knew you read them, Russ. Every once in a while MrG sends me message and tells me it’s time to stick you with a fork for him. If it was you, and he wanted you to stick me, could you refuse him?... (: You’ve become a good friend to me, Russ. I appreciate that immensely... |
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Post by inger on Jan 15, 2019 21:27:42 GMT -5
Chicago is going to give him 8 most likely. I don't see how this is fiscally responsible. As Inger pointed out this insures the players future at the expense of the team viability. He throws a shoe in year three and then what? Be that as it may I finding it comical trying to justify the DJ signing. It doesn't make sense today and it will make even less sense as the year unfolds. Is he a bench player? He's always been a starter. If he's a bench player how does that effect his ability both defensively and offensively. At this point their best option is Anduhar 3b, Tulo ss Torres 2nd. Does it make sense to turn Andujar into a DH. At this point in his career he needs to play. He won't get any better watching from the bench. Do you sit Tulo and slide Torres over to SS. Considering how Torres played D last year I would find that hard to believe. He needs as much time developing defensively as Andujar and 2b seems to be a better option for him right now. Of course I'm assuming Tulo is able to stand up. I don't think they would have taken a flier on him if they didn't believe he could play. So in my mind this leaves Dj as the bench player. Frankly I think giving the kids a hot rather than throw away 23M we could have used to bolster the pitching. I have a feeling that there’s at least one more surprise lurking this off season. As much as it pains me, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see either of Andujar or Torres dealt away for another top flight pitcher. In fact, the deal may already be made with the announcement being withheld for some unknown reason benefitting one or both of the franchises involved... |
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Post by goodyear on Jan 15, 2019 21:40:12 GMT -5
That would seem to be the only logical conclusion. If it's a top line pitcher then so be it but I'd hate to see either of them go.
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Post by chiyankee on Jan 15, 2019 21:47:00 GMT -5
So, they give $12 million per year for a bench player, but won't even offer Machado any deal.... DJ will probably end up playing more than we think. Who knows if Tulo will even make it out of spring training, when DiDi will be back or if Andujar gets traded for pitching? It's a long season. |
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