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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 20:30:57 GMT -5
Whether you respect it or not doesn't matter to me. I don't think you understand how sports works. Having some knowledge of statistics and being unable to apply it to the topic at hand doesn't represent knowledge or wisdom. Sports is not magically different than any other probability. By the logic you use they would not play shifts because despite the high probability of a ball being hit somewhere it could possibly be hit somewhere else. So they would ignore what is most likely. In fact sports probabilities are calculated like any other probability (there may be some Baysians lurking somewhere).  It is possible that Boston could overcome the gap I noted. Its extremely unlikely. Of course it’s unlikely. But it’s not impossible...Therefore you must respect the possibility...History will both prove and disprove your position... |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 20:31:53 GMT -5
I thought maybe that it was just the MN park that was causing us problems. Obviously not. I don't know when there are enough games with 7+ runs to suggest a problem and when you can argue its just a fluke. I guess 5 in a row could still be a fluke. Maybe the next 5 games, a rotation, they will pitch as they did for most of the season.
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 20:32:05 GMT -5
Tarpley is now taking one for the team, he'll probably be sent back down after tonight's game.
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 20:35:12 GMT -5
No kidding. The drunks at Fenway must be insufferable tonight. I'd tell em to check the standings you bums! Just had this conversation with my son, who is not enjoying tonight's game at all. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 20:37:20 GMT -5
Sports is not magically different than any other probability. By the logic you use they would not play shifts because despite the high probability of a ball being hit somewhere it could possibly be hit somewhere else. So they would ignore what is most likely. In fact sports probabilities are calculated like any other probability (there may be some Baysians lurking somewhere). It is possible that Boston could overcome the gap I noted. Its extremely unlikely. Of course it’s unlikely. But it’s not impossible...Therefore you must respect the possibility...History will both prove and disprove your position... I think one assumes, emphasize central tendencies, not extreme outliers, but different people see reality differently. I don't think when it comes to probabilities sport analyst vary from standard statistical analysis generally(there are methodological differences such as failure to consider confidence intervals as compared to point estimates or multivariate as compared to univariate models). |
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 20:39:22 GMT -5
Austin Romine might want to get that pitching arm ready, he might see some mound action tonight.
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 20:40:13 GMT -5
I'd tell em to check the standings you bums! Just had this conversation with my son, who is not enjoying tonight's game at all. My son just walks away from games like this. I should learn to do the same. |
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 20:41:58 GMT -5
Sports is not magically different than any other probability. By the logic you use they would not play shifts because despite the high probability of a ball being hit somewhere it could possibly be hit somewhere else. So they would ignore what is most likely. In fact sports probabilities are calculated like any other probability (there may be some Baysians lurking somewhere). It is possible that Boston could overcome the gap I noted. Its extremely unlikely. Of course it’s unlikely. But it’s not impossible...Therefore you must respect the possibility...History will both prove and disprove your position... Prepare yourself for some halfbaked pseudo-statistical bullshit that would make anyone who took even a Stats 101 class in community college either cringe or laugh, parading around as faux-knowledge, fooling nobody. The act is tired. |
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 20:42:24 GMT -5
Sometimes, you get boat-raced. However, I’ve noticed recently that our starting pitchers have slowed down their pace from earlier in the year, nibbling when ahead, and just not aggressive enough. It’s like they are allowing the batter to dictate pace of play and to dig themselves comfortably in the box. One of the pitchers who does dictate pace and overtly attempts to disrupt timing is Nestor Cortes. I've noticed this too, it's like some of these pitchers are trying to avoid contact and all they are doing is letting the hitter get back into the count. Here’s what I saw in Minnesota, and it’s been furthered tonight. The utopian goal of any pitcher is to get hitters to swing at balls that are out of the strike zone. With the starting staff lacking anyone except for Pax without gas, they’ve become extremely reliant on getting those pitches out of the zone or on the edge of the zone either swing at or called strikes. I think they got away with that for a while. At that point I believe the league made book on it, and so did perhaps the umpires. At that point teams began to do more of what the savages in the Yankee lineup have been doing, which is forcing the pitchers to come to the middle of the plate and at a middle height before they would swing. It’s becoming more of an MLB batting theme than just something a couple of teams are doing... Like everything else, this is getting scouted too. We may begin to see more “get it over” first pitches to get ahead of the count. It’s the way game has been for a long time, with the zone expanded further with each strike. Then again, there’s is certainly a probability table that will disprove that and let us know it can’t happen... |
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 20:44:54 GMT -5
Just had this conversation with my son, who is not enjoying tonight's game at all. My son just walks away from games like this. I should learn to do the same. As great as the last two comebacks against the Twinkies were, you can't give up 7 in the first, keep your starter in and expect to win. Tanaka was crap tonight. Tomorrow's another day. But they have an issue with the rotation that has been obscured by the power of the offense. Unfortunately there are very few legitimate difference makers available. It may not prevent us from making the playoffs but it is an issue. I think if they can't land Stroman they might pass on the next level of starter and surprise us by adding a premium reliever and try to play a different game in the playoffs where starters aren't expected to go more than 4-5. |
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 20:47:24 GMT -5
My son just walks away from games like this. I should learn to do the same. As great as the last two comebacks against the Twinkies were, you can't give up 7 in the first, keep your starter in and expect to win. Tanaka was crap tonight. Tomorrow's another day. But they have an issue with the rotation that has been obscured by the power of the offense. Unfortunately there are very few legitimate difference makers available. It may not prevent us from making the playoffs but it is an issue.
I think if they can't land Stroman they might pass on the next level of starter and surprise us by adding a premium reliever and try to play a different game in the playoffs where starters aren't expected to go more than 4-5.This sounds a lot like what we have seen in the playoffs in the past couple of years. Managers have quick hooks in October and the pen gets worked hard. |
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 20:47:46 GMT -5
Of course it’s unlikely. But it’s not impossible...Therefore you must respect the possibility...History will both prove and disprove your position... I think one assumes, emphasize central tendencies, not extreme outliers, but different people see reality differently. I don't think when it comes to probabilities sport analyst vary from standard statistical analysis generally(there are methodological differences such as failure to consider confidence intervals as compared to point estimates or multivariate as compared to univariate models). Which is why it’s so “stunning” when these outlier events reoccur throughout history. Because people look and see those silly historical “records” that can always be broken and believe they won’t be. Multivariate that!. Tonight, the Yanks trail by twelve. It’s extremely unlikely that they’ll comeback and win... but don’t say it “can’t be done... It can...Will it? Probably not... yet it COULD happen... |
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 20:47:48 GMT -5
Tarpley back out there to get abused again.
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 20:50:44 GMT -5
Darwinzon Hernandez is warming up for Boston. If Tanaka can allow 12 earned runs a guy named Darwinzon can allow at least that many...
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 20:52:33 GMT -5
Suddenly Cessa is becoming tough again...
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