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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 20:55:23 GMT -5
I think one assumes, emphasize central tendencies, not extreme outliers, but different people see reality differently. I don't think when it comes to probabilities sport analyst vary from standard statistical analysis generally(there are methodological differences such as failure to consider confidence intervals as compared to point estimates or multivariate as compared to univariate models). Which is why it’s so “stunning” when these outlier events reoccur throughout history. Because people look and see those silly historical “records” that can always be broken and believe they won’t be. Multivariate that!. Tonight, the Yanks trail by twelve. It’s extremely unlikely that they’ll comeback and win... but don’t say it “can’t be done... It can...Will it? Probably not... yet it COULD happen... So you have to decide what you base your decisions on what is likely or what is possible - without reference to probabilities. Obviously I am in the former group. Nothing I have said would even be controversial among statisticians. I keep getting surprised when seemingly innocuous statements generate shock.  |
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 20:57:19 GMT -5
The Yankees did win the World Series in 2000.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 20:58:52 GMT -5
They only get 1. The good news about my model is we only have to win one game in this series and split the series at home to have a high probability of winning the division  Even a pessimist like me has a hard time believing our pitching has been this bad over the last 5 games. |
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 21:00:08 GMT -5
The Yankees did win the World Series in 2000. They did although that might be the worst Yankees team to ever win a championship. |
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 21:00:55 GMT -5
Tarpley is now taking one for the team, he'll probably be sent back down after tonight's game. He might already be on his way to Scranton |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 21:01:18 GMT -5
The Yankees did win the World Series in 2000. The 50 runs don't matter except to our pitchers ERA. The real issue is if this is just a five game fluke as some think or a sign our pitchers have tired arms (or some other systematic problem that won't end tommorow). I guess the next 5 starts will tell. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 21:12:39 GMT -5
Let's score a couple of runs and build some momentum to tomorrow. Going to be a real fun press conference for Boone after the game.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 21:15:31 GMT -5
19 hits through 7 wow.
judge really gets down the line fast. Even in a blow out game where many would give up. Awesome.
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 21:15:58 GMT -5
Suddenly Cessa is becoming tough again... Put him in the rotation! |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 21:18:18 GMT -5
Suddenly Cessa is becoming tough again... Put him in the rotation! put Hale and Cortez in and have the starters start later. |
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 21:21:08 GMT -5
Suddenly Cessa is becoming tough again... Put him in the rotation! And Cortez. And Deivi Garcia. And trade for anyone. How much worse can it be?... It’s a blip. Five MLB starting pitchers on the same team don’t all suddenly become stumblebums at the same time... |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 21:25:15 GMT -5
I think 16 runs is the worse deficit ever against the Red Sox. Hopefully we won't get there tonight.
18-3
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 21:26:38 GMT -5
And Cortez. And Deivi Garcia. And trade for anyone. How much worse can it be?... It’s a blip. Five MLB starting pitchers on the same team don’t all suddenly become stumblebums at the same time... They ran out of Arod's special elixir. |
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2019 21:26:48 GMT -5
I think 16 runs is the worse deficit ever against the Red Sox. Hopefully we won't get there tonight. 18-3 Who cares? When the Red Sox wake up tomorrow, they are still 10 games out. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 21:28:44 GMT -5
I think 16 runs is the worse deficit ever against the Red Sox. Hopefully we won't get there tonight. 18-3 Who cares? When the Red Sox wake up tomorrow, they are still 10 games out. I made that point earlier. I still hate bad history to be made. It will matter if it influences the Yankee morale. Especially the starters. |
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