|
|
Post by inger on Feb 11, 2024 23:40:14 GMT -5
They dont have to have a better record than the Orioles to make the playoffs The Orioles had the best Record in the AL and got swept by a 90 win WC team yup the regular season means diddly. just ask the dodgers who despite 100+ win seasons, can't get out of the division series. or the braves with 100+ wins the past 2 seasons. in fact winning a division and getting the bye is the kiss of death. Suddenly, there were days off for everyone to lose their timing, all momentum to dry up and blow away… |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Feb 11, 2024 23:48:54 GMT -5
Sixteen teams go in. One comes out on top. There is a 6.25% chance for every team, meaning that one the whole any given team should win on average once every 16 years. The once meaningful full season slate has much less meaning now. Dynasties no longer exist. Going into the playoffs it’s more about who’s heathy and who happens to be hot at the right time… Blues Traveler: "It doesn't matter what I say So long as I sing with inflection" Just then TMarino appeared, smelling the negativity in the air, ready for battle, backed by his garbagemen Mafia, with season tickets to Camden Yard in his hands. That's clown math, Bro," said the contrarian troll. An empty sombrero levitated above the fray and an old man with plate of liver mush in his hands said in a clear voice to the heavens, "Vaya con Dios."  And the drum they had So the drum they beat They beat to death one side For it was made of horse hide When the drum was worn They beat the thing some more They beat it like a hack Until it had a crack Crack crack Smack smack Til there was only pulp And the people had no hope… |
|
|
|
Post by bruner4329 on Feb 12, 2024 8:37:45 GMT -5
We may be and should be better than last year but did we really close the gap between us and the top teams in the AL? We finished 19 games behind the Orioles who at worst should be just as good. Don't think we made up 19 games. It all comes down to our fragile starting pitching. One more solid rotation piece would provide some optimism. They dont have to have a better record than the Orioles to make the playoffs The Orioles had the best Record in the AL and got swept by a 90 win WC team The season is a marathon and if you don't have any depth it will come back and bite you. 60% of our starting rotation is coming off a season where they were injured. To expect all of them to not have some bumps in the road is pure planning.And as we know some of them have a penchant of hitting the IL every year. As it is in today's game you need 6/7 starters to survive a season. The other aspect is the fact we are not only chasing the Orioles but we also finished behind the Rays and Blue Jays. |
|
|
|
Post by chiyankee on Feb 12, 2024 9:30:04 GMT -5
yup the regular season means diddly. just ask the dodgers who despite 100+ win seasons, can't get out of the division series. or the braves with 100+ wins the past 2 seasons. in fact winning a division and getting the bye is the kiss of death. Suddenly, there were days off for everyone to lose their timing, all momentum to dry up and blow away… This was the danger of MLB letting more teams into the playoffs and having byes for the best teams. Baseball is unlike any other sport where most of the players don't want a lot of time off. |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Feb 12, 2024 9:33:15 GMT -5
Suddenly, there were days off for everyone to lose their timing, all momentum to dry up and blow away… This was the danger of MLB letting more teams into the playoffs and having byes for the best teams. Baseball is unlike any other sport where most of the players don't want a lot of time off. Maybe the last seeds should get the bye… 😂 |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Feb 12, 2024 9:51:04 GMT -5
Suddenly, there were days off for everyone to lose their timing, all momentum to dry up and blow away… This was the danger of MLB letting more teams into the playoffs and having byes for the best teams. Baseball is unlike any other sport where most of the players don't want a lot of time off. Boone would get a nut if he could get the last seed… Rest for everybody! Precious rest! We played it just right! Now all I have to do is figure who to get that extra day off for the play in game. Maybe Judge…maybe Soto. Hmmm. Maybe both? … |
|
|
|
Post by qimqam on Feb 12, 2024 12:24:38 GMT -5
Sixteen teams go in. One comes out on top. There is a 6.25% chance for every team, meaning that one the whole any given team should win on average once every 16 years. The once meaningful full season slate has much less meaning now. Dynasties no longer exist. Going into the playoffs it’s more about who’s heathy and who happens to be hot at the right time… Neither team in the ws last year went into the playoffs hot or got hot in the playoffs . In fact the hottest team last year didnt even maje it to the ws and were beaten by the dbacks . And the astros who were one of the hottest teams in september and came back to beat the rangers for the division were then beaten by the rangers . And if its always the hottest team then why have astros been in the last 6 alcs and the phils the last two nlcs? Again ... This is waaaayyyyy over your head !!!! |
|
|
|
Post by qimqam on Feb 12, 2024 12:30:57 GMT -5
They dont have to have a better record than the Orioles to make the playoffs The Orioles had the best Record in the AL and got swept by a 90 win WC team The season is a marathon and if you don't have any depth it will come back and bite you. 60% of our starting rotation is coming off a season where they were injured. To expect all of them to not have some bumps in the road is pure planning.And as we know some of them have a penchant of hitting the IL every year. As it is in today's game you need 6/7 starters to survive a season. The other aspect is the fact we are not only chasing the Orioles but we also finished behind the Rays and Blue Jays. That was last season ... We dont know what is going to happen this seasn ... because it hasnt happened yet. Dodgers, Braves, were favored to win last year ... they didnt Tex and Arz were long shots to be in the WS ... they were. That's why we play the Games ! |
|
|
|
Post by posadafan24 on Feb 12, 2024 13:40:48 GMT -5
Neither team in the ws last year went into the playoffs hot or got hot in the playoffs . In fact the hottest team last year didnt even maje it to the ws and were beaten by the dbacks . And the astros who were one of the hottest teams in september and came back to beat the rangers for the division were then beaten by the rangers . And if its always the hottest team then why have astros been in the last 6 alcs and the phils the last two nlcs? Again ... This is waaaayyyyy over your head !!!! And you are in over your head if you believe in the crapshoot nonsense |
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Feb 13, 2024 16:17:50 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Torres is more or less in the bottom third of all defensive metrics posted on Fangraphs' Advanced Defensive Metrics for 2nd basemen with at least 600 innings played at the position in 2023:
16th out of 24 in BIS' Defensive Runs Saved at -4
17th out of 24 in Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Saved per 150 games at -2.1
16th out of 24 in Outs Above Average at -3
16th out of 24 in Runs Above Average at -3
Overall Fangraphs' Defensive rating was 16th out of 24 at -2.5 runs.
So in 2023, the defensive metrics all say Torres was below average. Not brutal, just sub-par across the board.
For 2022 and 2023 combined the picture is somewhat different. There are 28 MLB 2nd baseman who played at least 1000 innings at 2nd base. Of those 28, Torres is:
8th in BIS Defensive Runs Saved at +5
11th in Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Saved per 150 games at +1.1
18th in Outs Above Average at -3
18th in Runs Above Average at -2
21st in Fangraphs overall Defensive Rating at 2nd base at -2.5 runs.
These numbers tend toward the idea that Torres was a more or less average defender at 2nd base for 2022-2023 combined. So guys that have played about 1/3 of a season at 2nd base ?? How about guys that are everyday starting 2nd baseman ??? Conservatively 1000-1200 innings per season
However, at 1500 innings over 2022-23, 14 players meet that qualification. Of the 14, Torres ranks...
5th in BIS Defensive Runs Saved
7th in UZR Runs saved per 150 games
10th in Outs Above Average
10th in Runs Above Average
10th in Fangraphs overall Defensive
(Note that the stats don't change, just the rankings, because half the "qualified players" on the first list no longer "qualify".)
Again, these rankings tend toward the conclusion that taking the two seasons combined, Torres was a more or less average defensive second baseman in MLB. |
|
|
|
Post by qimqam on Feb 13, 2024 16:47:47 GMT -5
So guys that have played about 1/3 of a season at 2nd base ?? How about guys that are everyday starting 2nd baseman ??? Conservatively 1000-1200 innings per season
However, at 1500 innings over 2022-23, 14 players meet that qualification. Of the 14, Torres ranks...
5th in BIS Defensive Runs Saved
7th in UZR Runs saved per 150 games
10th in Outs Above Average
10th in Runs Above Average
10th in Fangraphs overall Defensive
(Note that the stats don't change, just the rankings, because half the "qualified players" on the first list no longer "qualify".)
Again, these rankings tend toward the conclusion that taking the two seasons combined, Torres was a more or less average defensive second baseman in MLB.Why do no other 2nd baseman Qualify? Because most of them are not good enough to be regular players ??? I cant think of any other reason. So Gleyber is a Top 5 offensive 2nd baseman and top 10 defensive 2nd baseman ... that's pretty good |
|
|
|
Post by azbob643 on Feb 13, 2024 16:51:23 GMT -5
So Gleyber is a Top 5 offensive 2nd baseman and top 10 defensive 2nd baseman ... that's pretty good For some, perception is reality. In fact, he's so good...he'll be too expensive to keep.  |
|
|
|
Post by posadafan24 on Feb 13, 2024 17:21:14 GMT -5
Can't really use 2000-2400 innings over 2022-2023, because only 4 MLB 2nd basemen have played over 2000 innings at that position in 2022-2023, and if you raise it to 2400 innings, Torres doesn't even qualify, having played 2338 innings at 2nd in those two season. For 2400 innings, only Marcus Semien qualifies. I used 1000 innings because it was the highest amount of innings I could choose that would give enough players who played 2nd base regularly enough to be an approximation of the field of all second baseman in MLB.
However, at 1500 innings over 2022-23, 14 players meet that qualification. Of the 14, Torres ranks...
5th in BIS Defensive Runs Saved
7th in UZR Runs saved per 150 games
10th in Outs Above Average
10th in Runs Above Average
10th in Fangraphs overall Defensive
(Note that the stats don't change, just the rankings, because half the "qualified players" on the first list no longer "qualify".)
Again, these rankings tend toward the conclusion that taking the two seasons combined, Torres was a more or less average defensive second baseman in MLB. Why do no other 2nd baseman Qualify? Because most of them are not good enough to be regular players ??? I cant think of any other reason. So Gleyber is a Top 5 offensive 2nd baseman and top 10 defensive 2nd baseman ... that's pretty good And yet right now , torres is not in the top 10 2b according to mlb |
|
|
|
Post by qimqam on Feb 13, 2024 17:58:35 GMT -5
Why do no other 2nd baseman Qualify? Because most of them are not good enough to be regular players ??? I cant think of any other reason. So Gleyber is a Top 5 offensive 2nd baseman and top 10 defensive 2nd baseman ... that's pretty good And yet right now , torres is not in the top 10 2b according to mlb Yes according to a person(s) opinion ... Other opinions have him in the top 5-6 One thing that is a fact and not an opinion - Gleyber had the 6th highest OPS of all MLB 2B in 2023 ... Thats pretty Good |
|
|
|
Post by posadafan24 on Feb 13, 2024 18:23:51 GMT -5
And yet right now , torres is not in the top 10 2b according to mlb Yes according to a person(s) opinion ... Other opinions have him in the top 5-6 One thing that is a fact and not an opinion - Gleyber had the 6th highest OPS of all MLB 2B in 2023 ... Thats pretty Good Being a good 2b is more than just his bat though . And i believe overall torres isnt a top 10 2b. |
|
