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Post by greatfatness on Jan 22, 2019 5:24:37 GMT -5
Meh. The Yanks didn't get as much back for Gray as they'd given up to get him...Having seen neither, I can't tell which of Long and Stowers is the better prospect. But it certainly seems that Long is, at this point, the better hitter. And he swings a LH bat, to boot. Long was more high rated in the Reds' system than Stowers was in the Mariners' system and (I think) the Reds' are believed to have the better farm system. So???? The "competitive balance" pick and the money saved would appear to be the keys to the deal. Stowers seems to be a decent prospect (his profile puts me in mind of Austin Jackson), but that's all. I wonder if Cashman's got more moves up his sleeve. Is the trade "addition by subtraction?" I'm not so sure. Fowler looks like a 5th OF, at best, Mateo has been terrible at AAA and Kaprielian's career has been derailed by injuries. Cashman got back what's going to be two highly drafted players and dumped the salary of a player that couldn't pitch at Yankee Stadium. Well, in the time since the Yankees traded for Gray he’s pitched like crap for a good team in a tough division, had some racist tweets pop up that he never really explained and apparently was also part of the group that voted to not give clubhouse shares to the attendants that take care of the players all year long. Makes sense that his value is no longer what it once was if he hasn’t been able to perform on the field and seems like an asshole off the field. That they didn’t just have to release him for nothing and got his salary off the books is a win. If the kid from Seattle turns out to be anything then that’s gravy. I think all things considered they got a very good return for him - a legit prospect and a draft pick which should be a legit prospect if they know what they’re doing when they draft. |
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Post by greatfatness on Jan 22, 2019 5:30:24 GMT -5
Good summary of the deal on Fangraphs. blogs.fangraphs.com/sonny-gray-is-now-the-reds-problem-to-solve/What’s immediately clear is that Gray hasn’t thrown enough strikes. He has missed bats, and he has gotten grounders, so overall he’s profiled as something like a low No. 2, or a high No. 3. But, of course, there’s more to Gray than this. When he first came up, he looked like the ace of the A’s. Then he was traded to the Yankees. This past season did not go well — half of the time. Sonny Gray just couldn’t pitch in New York. Whenever someone cites lopsided home/road splits, I’m inclined to ignore them as noise. I’m still not entirely sure what to do about Gray. But, at FanGraphs, we have splits going back to 2002. Since 2002, there have been 2,206 pitcher-seasons with at least 50 innings at home, and at least 50 innings on the road. Here are the biggest home-field disadvantages, according to K-BB% and FIP: Home-Field Disadvantage, 2002 – 2018 Pitcher Year K-BB% Gap Pitcher Year FIP Gap Sonny Gray 2018 -15.4% Sonny Gray 2018 3.32 Oliver Perez 2003 -11.5% Brian Burres 2008 3.22 Jason Jennings 2004 -10.4% Kyle Kendrick 2015 2.86 Kyle Davies 2009 -10.2% Kyle Davies 2009 2.65 Zack Greinke 2016 -10.2% Shaun Marcum 2007 2.54 Jason Johnson 2003 -9.8% Marco Estrada 2013 2.52 Colby Lewis 2011 -9.7% Carl Pavano 2002 2.50 Carlos Carrasco 2011 -9.2% Daniel Cabrera 2008 2.48 Francisco Liriano 2014 -8.9% Homer Bailey 2012 2.39 Matt Moore 2018 -8.9% Colby Lewis 2011 2.31 Minimum 50 innings both home and away. Gray from last year also looks the worst by xFIP, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, but I didn’t want to make the table any bigger. We’ve seen players struggle before in certain ballparks, but Gray’s 2018 was something else entirely. Working in Yankee Stadium, he simply fell apart. I think it means something that the Yankees apparently arrived at the same conclusion. I also think it’s important to understand you can’t just extrapolate Gray’s road numbers, were he to wear a different uniform. In a sense, Matt Harvey was a similar kind of gamble last season, when the Reds took him from the Mets. Pitching in Cincinnati, Harvey definitely improved, but he still wasn’t anything great. With Sonny Gray, after last year, there are no sure things. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2019 7:06:27 GMT -5
The Red’s plsy in an extreme hitters park also, so we will see.
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Post by greatfatness on Jan 22, 2019 9:11:00 GMT -5
The Red’s plsy in an extreme hitters park also, so we will see. Agreed. If he was too worried about HRs to throw strikes at YS, that place won't be much better for him. But like the Fangraphs headline read, he's their problem to solve now. He won't make the list of Cashman's greatest hits. |
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Post by Renfield on Jan 22, 2019 10:13:32 GMT -5
Would be curious to know what percentage of strikes Gray threw when he was ahead in the count 0-2 or 1-2. Seemed like every time he got ahead of a hitter, he would start nibbling in the extreme until he had to serve up a strike on a platter on a 3-2 count. Was very frustrating to watch.
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Post by noetsi on Jan 22, 2019 12:49:52 GMT -5
They traded a major league pitcher, one of our thinnest positions, for the number ten prospect of Seattle. An outfielder where we can't use the outfielders we have now, even ignoring frazier.
I would think a pitcher that had an ERA below 3 on the road for the Yankees would be worth more than a number 10 prospect in a position we don't need anyone anyhow.
This trade baffles me. We will wish we had Gray when we inevitably have our starters go on the DL this year.
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Post by michcusejoe5 on Jan 22, 2019 13:22:59 GMT -5
They traded a major league pitcher, one of our thinnest positions, for the number ten prospect of Seattle. An outfielder where we can't use the outfielders we have now, even ignoring frazier. I would think a pitcher that had an ERA below 3 on the road for the Yankees would be worth more than a number 10 prospect in a position we don't need anyone anyhow. This trade baffles me. We will wish we had Gray when we inevitably have our starters go on the DL this year. He simply wasnt good for the Yankees and it wasnt working here for him anymore. |
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Post by inger on Jan 22, 2019 13:23:29 GMT -5
They traded a major league pitcher, one of our thinnest positions, for the number ten prospect of Seattle. An outfielder where we can't use the outfielders we have now, even ignoring frazier. I would think a pitcher that had an ERA below 3 on the road for the Yankees would be worth more than a number 10 prospect in a position we don't need anyone anyhow. This trade baffles me. We will wish we had Gray when we inevitably have our starters go on the DL this year. Wrong, Russ. Bad pitching can be easily replaced. The young OF is there to fill a need on our minor league roster and cultivate value for 3 or so years from now. If he proves worthy of a position on the team, he earns that after Gardner and Hicks are no longer viable. If not, he’ll wind up being dealt away for a needed piece before we have add him to the 40. It’s a good move for a player with decent speed and a bit of developing power...He may fill a role at some point... |
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Post by greatfatness on Jan 22, 2019 13:58:59 GMT -5
They traded a major league pitcher, one of our thinnest positions, for the number ten prospect of Seattle. An outfielder where we can't use the outfielders we have now, even ignoring frazier. I would think a pitcher that had an ERA below 3 on the road for the Yankees would be worth more than a number 10 prospect in a position we don't need anyone anyhow. This trade baffles me. We will wish we had Gray when we inevitably have our starters go on the DL this year. You must not have seen him pitch for the Yankees. Nobody who has is going to wish we had Sonny Gray back. |
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Post by michcusejoe5 on Jan 22, 2019 14:00:52 GMT -5
If Gray is good in the National League it also doesnt mean he would have done that here, but we will surely see that Monday Morning QBing if he has a good year. He clearly just wasnt any good here (whether it was mental or otherwise).
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Post by greatfatness on Jan 22, 2019 14:06:12 GMT -5
If Gray is good in the National League it also doesnt mean he would have done that here, but we will surely see that Monday Morning QBing if he has a good year. He clearly just wasnt any good here (whether it was mental or otherwise). Yep. His FIP suggests he’s probably capable of better than he pitched for us. Those tweets and the other off field stuff probably sealed it for Cashman. Hard to know how to tell in advance but some guys just can’t cut it in NY. |
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Post by pippsheadache on Jan 22, 2019 16:08:03 GMT -5
If Gray is good in the National League it also doesnt mean he would have done that here, but we will surely see that Monday Morning QBing if he has a good year. He clearly just wasnt any good here (whether it was mental or otherwise). Yep. And anyone who follows the Yankees will know the complaints are bogus. He could not pitch in New York, he showed it often enough. He may well be great in a low-intensity setting like Cincy, but it was never happening with the Yankees. This is one deal where Cashman gets a pass, both in acquiring him -- it was a logical move and there was no reason to suspect it wouldn't work out -- and in letting him go. No chirping from me even if Gray does well pitching in the hinterlands. |
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Post by inger on Jan 22, 2019 16:55:34 GMT -5
I guess I missed the racist tweets or have somehow forgotten them. Too bad that’s also been added to his Yankees legacy.
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Post by noetsi on Jan 22, 2019 17:43:40 GMT -5
He had an ERA under 3 for the Yankees on the road. Which for a number 5 starter can't be that bad.
I guess we can compare our number 5 starter this year to Gray's last years performance and see if we gained or lost.
A number of teams expressed interest. Its just hard to believe this is the best we could do. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2019 18:02:37 GMT -5
I thought his ERA on the road was 3.17, not under 3.
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